AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61a1a5ddc0de0f9218023361afd8d6a29c2c8053822ab326f8f69527680f1b8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf622…162ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dda…a8b4backed No | 50c | 7,558$3,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,779 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3358…617fbacked Yes | 50c | 7,548$3,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,774 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed No | 41c | 1,412$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 39c | 735.2$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.76 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 35c | 718.26$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.21 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 34c | 683.77$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.08 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…9b66backed Yes | 66c | 613.49$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 34c | 529.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.14 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd21…007abacked Yes | 53c | 500$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…3042backed Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 60c | 485.16$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.22 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 50c | 458$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 46c | 439$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 54c | 437$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…8a09backed Yes | 68c | 431.32$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 60c | 405.64$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 50c | 389$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…0b26backed Yes | 50c | 383.52$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…4069backed No | 40c | 371.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +177.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 23c | 349.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.24 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 50c | 345.57$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561f…a932backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…bec0backed No | 56c | 299.95$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…1890backed Yes | 67c | 297.86$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 28c | 255$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 58c | 254.64$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…ea38backed No | 40c | 249.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 32c | 240$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 28c | 200.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…1419backed Yes | 53c | 189.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 45c | 184.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…3d49backed Yes | 72c | 176.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 67c | 149.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2666…04a6backed Yes | 69c | 145.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 50c | 144.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 50c | 141$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed No | 54c | 138.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37cc…c07abacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 37c | 131.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 55c | 128$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1699…e38cbacked Yes | 64c | 125.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815d…bf5dbacked Yes | 61c | 119.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…d94fbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 46c | 112$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 37c | 109.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked No | 36c | 105$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7957…ed88backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d3…ae43backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -83%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…4487backed Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…b1b3backed Yes | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 37c | 99.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 20c | 92.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7d…5852backed No | 50c | 91.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…7dc8backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…55acbacked Yes | 58c | 85.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…c003backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 43c | 80.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 63c | 79.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Yes | 63c | 79.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd925…3ab5backed Yes | 66c | 78.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575c…a6a5backed No | 40c | 75.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +226.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…82ebbacked No | 67c | 75.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 46c | 73.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 56c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c8…b77abacked Yes | 59c | 69.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ca…08ebbacked Yes | 63c | 68.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…7721backed Yes | 58c | 66.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x921c…443bbacked Yes | 59c | 64.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 33c | 61.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…11a5backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…51f4backed Yes | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked No | 45c | 59.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed No | 29c | 59.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…5f01backed No | 40c | 59.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 54c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…9728backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 56c | 56.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1055…b628backed Yes | 56c | 56.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 38c | 52.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 42c | 52.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…dd75backed Yes | 52c | 52.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked No | 38c | 52.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked No | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…20b4backed Yes | 67c | 51.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e3…cb1abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.