TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x26a8…2726

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 51 out of 100; worst CS2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+56.8%+$8.23
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.47
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+96.1%+$13.9
Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.47
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26%+$7.7
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 2–6 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+112.8%+$36.66
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$32.96
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$32.97
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+105.8%+$33.08
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$14.55
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$58.2
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.47
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15.56
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.47
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.47
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$31.84
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+88%+$28.02
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$28.94
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$86.82
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$28.94
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+244.8%+$36.72
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+28.3%+$12.74
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+281.1%+$110.44
All 12 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$88.85
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+163.2%+$23.61
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+229.9%+$171.7
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.51
Maduro leaves Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.47
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.47
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$30.97
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+126.5%+$14.5
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14.47
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$14.47
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+92.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$3.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 34% and 36%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$14.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$32.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$14.47
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.