Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab5703006a17b1339ad99c904505693d56ad2f8ded327fdc953fd1a3f21a425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 2c | 809.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 401$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 126 | 23.8%30 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 55c | 316.94$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 39c | 267.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 207 | 43.5%90 W · 117 L | +15.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 175 | 32.6%57 W · 118 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 354 | 34.7%123 W · 231 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…6854backed No | 56c | 177.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 77c | 150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 78c | 137$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1198…315dbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…8297backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…a1a1backed No | 80c | 43.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…2726backed No | 79c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will David Tulley win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Pat Hahn win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.