Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a732b41dc55ab4a3853374faa5196ac4b2239d1001301209e2f8d593cf451d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 1c | 9,008$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,486$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd059…2a48backed Yes | 14c | 5,911$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,590$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 13c | 4,124$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.04 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked Yes | 12c | 3,500$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.29 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…8f63backed Yes | 63c | 3,195$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,700$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 13c | 2,607$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 6c | 2,301$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 10c | 2,068$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082f…ce74backed Yes | 6c | 1,769$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,675$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…5e48backed Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,510$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.27 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c581backed Yes | 10c | 1,483$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 25c | 1,467$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 20c | 1,223$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.58 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 895.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 73c | 800$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 798.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed Yes | 26c | 716.47$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 6c | 656.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 12c | 617.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 8c | 612.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 58c | 601.83$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.85 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 8c | 601.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 9c | 516.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed Yes | 10c | 511.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 19c | 500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 481.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 448.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked Yes | 5c | 411.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 384.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…8328backed Yes | 10c | 355.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 6c | 341.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 4c | 340$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 13c | 313.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 25c | 305.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 7c | 299$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…6375backed Yes | 6c | 296.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 7c | 293.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e05…5f33backed Yes | 4c | 280.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 5c | 275$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…c91dbacked Yes | 13c | 251$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 246.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…f516backed Yes | 8c | 242.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 235.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 76c | 212.65$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…5652backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 16c | 198.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 189.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…7cadbacked Yes | 18c | 187.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 26c | 175$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…a720backed No | 74c | 173$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 73c | 129$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 74c | 121$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 120.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 117.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed No | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 57c | 67.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked No | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 74c | 56.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…4dd9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…2726backed Yes | 29c | 49.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…2a75backed Yes | 28c | 45.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 77c | 40.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…1092backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f6…ededbacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…e379backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.