TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

No US strike on Syria in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,090 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbca…3b1ebacked No17c6,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,979.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+300.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c4,040$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.461,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes72c3,505$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,511.4918338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes6c2,828$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0138237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40a2…3ec4backed No35c2,715$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,755.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No15c2,689$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.621717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes76c2,201$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.5164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes69c1,242$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.0717646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No25c1,145$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.2415023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x309f…b99cbacked No14c1,100$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9451741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked No33c1,007$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.453935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No21c985.97$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.784734%16 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+71.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No22c964.8$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.2947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a9…1e0dbacked No15c919.46$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.462733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+321.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes64c890.31$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.2110945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e5…854cbacked Yes79c769.97$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa0…488bbacked Yes70c756.39$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.141250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes72c711.21$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.1214129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0eb…2d82backed Yes58c674.22$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a9…ce37backed Yes63c671.48$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c630.5$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No19c604.51$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.77448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.7wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+156.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked No37c600$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3813060%18 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf38f…4f52backed Yes80c600$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480837.5%3 W · 5 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick79cpaid-52.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes67c599.99$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.4919428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed No40c586.69$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.28837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+55.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes70c572.27$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7111537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No33c510$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.487850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7687…d750backed No35c508.45$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.453250%16 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No27c491.27$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.2826138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes73c486.18$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.9620438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0f…1132backed No19c474$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.941090%9 W · 1 L+4.6wins+0.46per pick44cpaid+178.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No30c469.5$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.257341.1%30 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c4…a309backed Yes79c432.69$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+150%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes76c400$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3044247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed No35c366.49$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.493060%18 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+82%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes80c361.97$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.585927.1%16 W · 43 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-35.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe91f…e493backed Yes60c333.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed No41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1774339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No48c291.48$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7512138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes71c267.3$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No44c265.52$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14842120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d34cbacked Yes77c260.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No20c260.15$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373c…afbcbacked No38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d42…8fbbbacked Yes71c250$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.511856.8%67 W · 51 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes67c236.95$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582850%14 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed No20c225.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3914420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f18…5515backed No46c218.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.42933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+230.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No9c212.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.024195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No25c205$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.335646.4%26 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No17c200$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1665749.1%28 W · 29 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11016541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd20c…81b5backed Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed No37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1267341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No24c170.88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.213342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No21c166.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.676036.7%22 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No9c165.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.42306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea11…c16abacked No11c158.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+841.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…259dbacked Yes75c150.11$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+117.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169b…30c9backed Yes80c140$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes71c139.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed No22c138.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+363.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes73c132.08$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.421513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-61.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.548630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f5…2587backed Yes79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes76c126.57$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.225022%11 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No20c125$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x131f…2fedbacked Yes74c122.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No10c121.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.67836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…8aa8backed No20c120.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ea…15cdbacked No47c119.46$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.312665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb188…d730backed No18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No40c109.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.349153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No10c103.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.277135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.88977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0207…711dbacked Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…652abacked Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713663.9%23 W · 13 L+6.9wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+33.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed No18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8214335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac58…39a8backed No29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf812…5222backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed No15c99.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.993677.8%28 W · 8 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+38%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed No13c95.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.52725.9%7 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4023…77c1backed Yes80c93.68$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-34.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No32c89.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3410165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e6…6e0fbacked No15c80.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes52c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.413250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No28c79.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.993161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2819…34fcbacked No25c78.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.851241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed Yes72c77.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.822437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes30c77.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x917d…d5dfbacked No24c75.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.093850%19 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26a8…2726backed No20c72.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.88540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+92.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No55c70.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6736634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a0…3762backed Yes68c69.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.691450%7 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+103.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes74c67.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1931719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87eb…1e2ebacked No22c67.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+349.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.