TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Next US strike on Syria on December 19?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,221 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60a9…5a71backed No8c3,026$250 inLost-$249.5338237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a9…1e0dbacked Yes3c2,233$57 inWon+$2,175.582733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+321.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f18…5515backed Yes4c1,268$50 inWon+$1,217.75933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+230.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes2c1,102$24 inWon+$1,077.595414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes21c604.91$130 inWon+$475.385834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8815…6d51backed Yes3c439.3$12 inWon+$427.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick11cpaid+660.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed Yes4c355.27$14 inWon+$341.273060%18 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+82%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf21d…3f38backed Yes4c352.32$13 inWon+$339.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+567.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9748…f298backed Yes4c263.33$10 inWon+$252.831100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,407.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes20c246.6$49 inWon+$197.2619428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No43c193.23$84 inLost-$83.717341.1%30 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2819…34fcbacked Yes13c106.86$14 inWon+$93.261241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes57c38.34$22 inWon+$16.5785725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4174…c578backed Yes55c27.26$15 inWon+$12.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No51c20$10 inLost-$10.236342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.