TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Next US strike on Syria on December 14?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,638 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes2c7,614$176 inLost-$176.4216125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes1c4,932$56 inLost-$56.2719428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes2c3,100$49 inLost-$48.715023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a2…3ec4backed Yes4c1,620$59 inLost-$58.71633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes3c1,491$49 inLost-$48.9611537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f18…5515backed Yes4c1,342$50 inLost-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+230.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,200$26 inLost-$26.132384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes2c1,100$20 inLost-$20.2260%0 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba9…216abacked Yes3c1,088$30 inLost-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+219.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes3c1,047$31 inLost-$31.1718338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes2c880.66$16 inLost-$15.995414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes2c800$15 inLost-$15.2130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c793.97$18 inLost-$17.67694.3%3 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes2c701.31$17 inLost-$17.44128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab69…2283backed Yes2c628$11 inLost-$10.681952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked Yes3c599.99$18 inLost-$17.82944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c570.52$15 inLost-$14.924195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c538.17$14 inLost-$13.7306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes2c500$12 inLost-$1216541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f49…231dbacked Yes4c479.99$20 inLost-$19.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed Yes4c476.25$17 inLost-$17.491216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-70.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes4c400$14 inLost-$1448630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed Yes4c333.88$13 inLost-$133060%18 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+82%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.