TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Next US strike on Syria on December 17?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,715 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes4c13,052$545 inLost-$54515023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f2…5e14backed Yes1c4,059$41 inLost-$40.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99af…c05abacked Yes1c4,050$40 inLost-$40.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x251b…b5e1backed Yes1c1,300$10 inLost-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f18…5515backed Yes4c1,264$50 inLost-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+230.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1c6…61fdbacked Yes1c1,166$17 inLost-$17.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a2…3ec4backed Yes4c1,150$52 inLost-$51.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c752.12$18 inLost-$17.764195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c655.65$13 inLost-$12.8694.3%3 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c578.69$11 inLost-$10.98836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c571.08$15 inLost-$15.12384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes3c552.88$17 inLost-$16.75414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c425.03$11 inLost-$11.43306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes3c402.13$13 inLost-$13.29128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed Yes5c320.08$15 inLost-$153060%18 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+82%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c319.99$12 inLost-$12.26260%0 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No26c156.02$40 inWon+$115.8630649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.