Middle East · resolved market
Next US strike on Syria on December 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x998545940d4b97c5a748c038da4fc12cc3940ace58fcaf66c2bb6686cb1f8f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 0c | 9,544$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…5515backed Yes | 4c | 1,340$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +230.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…3ec4backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 1,118$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 3c | 709.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 682.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 440.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 4c | 410$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 4c | 340.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +82%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 319.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next US strike on Syria on December 16?this page
- Next US strike on Syria on December 13?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 14?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 15?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 17?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 18?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 19?Yes won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 20?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 21?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 22?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 23?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 25?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 26?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 27?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 29?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 30?No won
- Next US strike on Syria on December 31?No won
- No US strike on Syria in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.