TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,126,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,113,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,126,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 708 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes35c46,681$16,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,571.52825%7 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No48c27,458$13,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,299.871540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-33.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes61c21,861$13,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,452.921741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…3377backed No13c19,200$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,516.861020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked Yes13c18,377$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,956.563060%18 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+92%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x97e1…ae74backed Yes11c18,214$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,131.034100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+271%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes38c15,194$5,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,458.784156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Yes49c14,266$7,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,247.545100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes10c14,218$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,789.452626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe065…95e5backed No0c13,900$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes44c13,180$5,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,378.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf85…acc4backed No69c12,231$8,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,420.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No49c12,200$5,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,99020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes68c12,147$8,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,866.081266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+57.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x94b3…a66cbacked No5c10,463$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Yes49c9,453$4,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,790.551040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No49c9,370$4,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,634.464057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c26…cf53backed No71c8,967$6,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,407.39812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No39c8,786$3,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,424.056663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+38.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes23c8,569$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,563.6218425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x231c…7e0bbacked No73c8,266$6,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,071.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes41c8,000$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,727.454443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes49c7,392$3,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,744.84540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes49c7,283$3,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,730.1731840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes44c7,107$3,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,963.026740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes37c7,002$2,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,430.5420446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes19c6,547$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,314.284951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked No77c6,526$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce29…b71bbacked No61c6,375$3,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,868.411010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8b…30e4backed Yes28c6,000$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,309.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+67.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed No62c5,817$3,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,612.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No54c5,747$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,101.516544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed No60c5,720$3,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,426.42520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2968…ce4cbacked Yes35c5,647$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,680.91926.3%5 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+145.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes41c5,578$2,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,271.461346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…9728backed No72c5,000$3,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,603.1140%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5508134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes44c4,828$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,698.42544%11 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…74c8backed Yes40c4,548$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,724.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+80.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc20c…e2bdbacked Yes11c4,535$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,045.431154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No64c4,486$2,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,891.4513341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed Yes71c4,265$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+107.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes32c4,119$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.4723639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes43c4,073$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.821225%3 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes41c4,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350.41723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c49…7af9backed Yes65c4,000$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4201338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes39c3,688$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.443240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked No45c3,630$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.941338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed No35c3,503$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.252157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd80…c73cbacked No79c3,500$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,78010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes32c3,489$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.6621022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd7d…4d56backed No50c3,417$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,712.7650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24f…6c63backed Yes51c3,375$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.83580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No50c3,359$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.62657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yes50c3,302$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4a…16a2backed Yes72c3,287$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+60.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No7c3,154$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0311121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed No65c3,079$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.321030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes33c3,061$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.1444111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes72c3,033$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.661330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid+115.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes32c3,008$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,057.595343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes28c2,974$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.3719236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fe…8591backed No68c2,925$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb3…2868backed Yes51c2,800$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes43c2,794$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.53560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd84f…adc2backed No67c2,767$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes38c2,567$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.252142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813f…4da3backed Yes50c2,555$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7968…d714backed Yes43c2,552$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.91728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1850…58b7backed Yes44c2,541$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No5c2,500$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1243966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes68c2,400$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e20…d6ddbacked Yes55c2,386$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc3…37b9backed No70c2,352$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x434a…5218backed Yes15c2,284$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.43933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c60…b0ccbacked No62c2,107$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed No66c2,009$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe639…082abacked No42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe27…52b7backed No52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0401258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+55.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6115…97ddbacked Yes53c2,000$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes9c2,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.993831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0b7…0c87backed Yes48c1,956$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fd…c0bebacked No50c1,872$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick24cpaid+480.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No53c1,850$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.515155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f5…3092backed Yes53c1,850$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed No28c1,800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+96.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes42c1,762$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.464314%6 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cd…f8c1backed No59c1,749$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03250%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed No50c1,675$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.492227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No31c1,664$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.012454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes67c1,662$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.029837.8%37 W · 61 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…a4eebacked Yes40c1,639$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No11c1,634$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6211120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No50c1,632$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.815837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed Yes35c1,603$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.84837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x974a…ee7bbacked Yes47c1,600$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+44.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f42…78fcbacked Yes64c1,567$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes16c1,555$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.349347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed No80c1,508$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.471435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.