Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccb6911ed30782af471547b7856219bc932661daa436b57564c8d37953f07d17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 3c | 13,000$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 10,895$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.77 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…c64fbacked Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d4…05d1backed Yes | 10c | 8,872$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…2d16backed Yes | 6c | 5,482$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 8c | 5,294$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.96 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 10c | 4,652$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.53 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 3,610$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.84 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.59 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4af…6a73backed Yes | 1c | 2,669$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 6c | 2,400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 3c | 2,319$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8df…dce7backed Yes | 4c | 2,238$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,968$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 4c | 1,899$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 1,762$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed Yes | 20c | 1,673$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed Yes | 10c | 1,574$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b02…7e8fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 8c | 1,412$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,007$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…78fcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…0b58backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 718.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 8c | 673.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 5c | 650.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 11c | 607.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…ee37backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…97ddbacked Yes | 4c | 592.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…dea5backed Yes | 10c | 540.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b0…e2d7backed Yes | 10c | 503.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…d714backed Yes | 9c | 489.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Yes | 6c | 470.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…dd9fbacked Yes | 9c | 440.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 3c | 414.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Yes | 5c | 407.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Yes | 11c | 401.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…08d6backed Yes | 6c | 339.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed Yes | 6c | 289.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 7c | 289.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee3…3c83backed Yes | 11c | 266.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…45e0backed Yes | 6c | 232.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 13c | 196.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 192.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98a…0e35backed Yes | 10c | 192.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…aa0ebacked Yes | 11c | 182.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…abc0backed Yes | 11c | 178.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b30…d326backed Yes | 11c | 174.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…0044backed Yes | 9c | 174.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…763dbacked Yes | 10c | 155.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36d…99ebbacked Yes | 11c | 151.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed Yes | 10c | 151.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a8…e485backed Yes | 8c | 145.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…adf5backed Yes | 11c | 139.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 137.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…edd9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 21?this page
- Will Trump not sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill by November 29?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 18?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 22?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 23?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 24?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 25?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 26?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 27?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 28?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.