Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump not sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill by November 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5f42ab6627dc5ac064cf850ddf580a0a8a7d936d6e0b1b10b709d44fadd583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7b2…639ebacked Yes | 5c | 9,345$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…c64fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,654$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,902$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.57 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 5,509$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.48 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 4,892$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed Yes | 3c | 4,874$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 3c | 4,142$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.27 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 3c | 4,102$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.57 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 3c | 3,330$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…fcb2backed Yes | 4c | 2,769$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7c68backed Yes | 4c | 2,699$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 2c | 1,950$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 4c | 1,946$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4af…6a73backed Yes | 3c | 1,811$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 4c | 1,764$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 6c | 1,762$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…eefabacked Yes | 4c | 1,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…abc0backed Yes | 8c | 1,271$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…4d56backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Yes | 5c | 933.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…925fbacked Yes | 3c | 903.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 5c | 899.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes | 2c | 751.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…9b56backed Yes | 3c | 662.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 3c | 610$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd9…f7bfbacked Yes | 4c | 553.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d89…36f5backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes | 4c | 484.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee3…3c83backed Yes | 3c | 409.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1e…7854backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…be22backed Yes | 5c | 367.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…42e2backed Yes | 6c | 355.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…454bbacked Yes | 8c | 315.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 6c | 279.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked Yes | 7c | 217.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump not sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill by November 29?this page
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 18?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 21?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 22?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 23?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 24?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 25?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 26?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 27?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 28?No won
- Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.