TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,604
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,604 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb009…b498backed Yes37c6,179$2,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,306.85540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec8…5709backed Yes79c6,156$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,876.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+99.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes29c5,891$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.511741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Yes58c5,289$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.471040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed Yes1c4,900$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491752.9%9 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+74.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No64c4,731$3,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.7331840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes51c4,657$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,366.324951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes6c3,808$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8611120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed No67c3,691$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.04977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+96.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa5c…5226backed Yes42c3,654$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.61741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No38c3,000$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.5819236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6859…3308backed Yes25c2,579$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes42c2,394$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.4120446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af1…abc0backed Yes30c2,249$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.171020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b69…42cfbacked No64c2,222$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+114.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No37c2,192$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.476663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+38.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c1,986$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8612910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes21c1,816$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.033928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b4…3908backed No66c1,810$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes70c1,782$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.11266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+57.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes35c1,762$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.954314%6 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c26…cf53backed Yes54c1,706$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x357f…1106backed No72c1,525$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes35c1,406$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.6721022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes43c1,357$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.762871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No64c1,258$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.752532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6556…8647backed No57c1,182$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.22944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f63…680ebacked Yes48c1,158$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes1c1,142$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4211121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No53c1,135$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.574717%8 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yes33c1,103$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac15…5351backed Yes46c1,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a9…69a2backed Yes35c1,082$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No28c1,056$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.9135519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76d2…6bfcbacked Yes1c1,042$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.421010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-86.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3006…6f28backed No62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+54%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-88.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes57c941.92$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+196.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3958…542ebacked No74c801$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+83.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00cf…5120backed No62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6115…97ddbacked No58c771.38$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff4…dea5backed Yes49c748.82$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a0…d7a5backed Yes33c700$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-75.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes19c699.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.761330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid+115.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6bd…0b58backed Yes18c599.98$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No70c555.77$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.1710145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes19c526.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.951136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+155.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes18c518.19$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.731457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+39.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.674242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes39c500$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.24240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes44c500$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…0e0fbacked Yes31c483.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No60c460.62$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.256740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No45c452.94$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.622147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc39d…4891backed Yes39c450$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.51020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa738…9c92backed Yes44c447$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdb…f0fdbacked No62c446.91$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf9a…1c50backed Yes46c435.66$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Yes53c423.55$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa0…8f5ebacked No71c422.53$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes14c416$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.664942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xcd6d…a7b2backed Yes11c406.92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes43c400$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17016943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No50c387.84$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.127656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9038…b34fbacked No61c362.62$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.61850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e17…f41ebacked Yes63c355.06$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+90.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked Yes25c353$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No46c347.05$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.8296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf22c…5c89backed Yes38c344.69$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1850…58b7backed Yes35c341.11$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes72c335.58$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.272532%8 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Yes31c322.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes33c317.18$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.57331.5%23 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa047…f4c5backed Yes39c302.77$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-82.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…d868backed Yes32c300$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+68.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No62c290.21$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.074738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c1…9b20backed No47c279.9$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.52277.4%2 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b29…47b2backed No72c277.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe959…578bbacked No72c277.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb1…1129backed No72c277.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No66c276.77$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.12544%11 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa24f…6c63backed No77c259.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.73580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…fcd3backed Yes46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…b3c4backed Yes46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a6…0b89backed Yes36c249.41$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes40c240.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7968…d714backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b0…e2d7backed Yes42c228.71$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe82f…9998backed Yes42c226.55$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No61c225.42$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.91988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick61cpaid+72.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8df…dce7backed Yes38c225.38$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed Yes68c225$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.262835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes66c224.54$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1410056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a2…4cc2backed Yes48c220.87$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c37…adf5backed Yes33c212.05$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x646b…5c3dbacked No60c212.02$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+53.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes24c206.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.138419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.