TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,432,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,394,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,432,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a73…c860backed Yes1c850,970$8,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,149.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…6771backed Yes1c585,027$5,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,531.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes6c15,551$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002035%7 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes5c13,382$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes4c12,518$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4402020%4 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c11,346$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.13330%0 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ae…8370backed Yes5c9,591$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x949a…721cbacked Yes6c8,843$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.871323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick9cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4886…f7cdbacked Yes6c8,159$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1dd…5625backed Yes5c6,455$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…1e0ebacked Yes5c6,443$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c5,894$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x145a…5e86backed Yes4c5,771$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c5,141$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.593243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1047…4776backed Yes1c5,100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes1c4,339$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes7c4,000$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.894843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6469…17cdbacked Yes4c3,944$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…8f08backed Yes1c3,650$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852b…759ebacked Yes4c3,489$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206e…096abacked Yes5c3,310$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9515…10d7backed Yes3c3,141$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c3,138$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38d…5895backed Yes5c3,095$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes4c3,000$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.233132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes3c2,785$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.23953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+76.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51bf…9205backed Yes5c2,537$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd863…0e2cbacked Yes5c2,188$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes2c2,131$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.44520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…e90fbacked Yes5c2,100$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x124b…fd03backed Yes12c2,066$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0698…f284backed Yes4c2,059$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a18…d1c9backed Yes13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53d3…ba87backed Yes5c2,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes3c1,923$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…c5ebbacked Yes5c1,769$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe66b…91a9backed Yes6c1,745$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf63…1375backed Yes6c1,736$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c1,695$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.241827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d94…8b7cbacked Yes4c1,588$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb4…b099backed Yes6c1,587$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24aa…a90ebacked Yes2c1,583$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd6…b7ecbacked Yes2c1,579$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes6c1,518$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.761040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2938…f251backed Yes3c1,507$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5913…a09ebacked Yes7c1,471$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fcf…c8c6backed Yes4c1,451$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8197…d06bbacked Yes7c1,443$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes4c1,417$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.67248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25fb…f960backed Yes2c1,403$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8e0…9cfbbacked Yes4c1,358$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6caf…6833backed Yes4c1,317$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+70.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb45…42f1backed Yes2c1,311$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8f4…24a5backed Yes3c1,296$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6662…3e03backed Yes5c1,275$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c1,275$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.41137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb94f…04d8backed Yes1c1,263$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c1,258$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.54633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf939…16afbacked Yes2c1,205$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad0…833abacked Yes4c1,188$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a91…5267backed Yes12c1,142$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.821428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes4c1,124$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c1,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.890%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes6c1,090$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.461921.1%4 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick8cpaid+128%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b55…01c6backed Yes4c1,054$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…b217backed Yes3c1,021$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd00d…f4d4backed Yes5c1,021$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50326.3%2 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafb2…b882backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f20…7967backed Yes4c976.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee75…f23abacked Yes4c900.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd819…b9a7backed Yes2c896.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5968…1d08backed Yes1c889.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes5c880.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd50…b81dbacked Yes6c808.22$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6a…7305backed Yes9c753.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes3c735.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fda…7453backed Yes2c687.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes6c675.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a43…5e26backed Yes2c668.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef6…0454backed Yes3c645.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes5c611.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe56…ad2bbacked Yes3c582.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ace…9850backed Yes4c577.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31f6…19dabacked Yes3c573.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes3c571.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec1b…aed9backed Yes9c570.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a3…973abacked Yes4c568.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d0…f8d1backed Yes4c566$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes9c565.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19a1…0c59backed Yes3c560.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a32…8635backed Yes4c560$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b00…9f52backed Yes4c558.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a0…84c6backed Yes4c534.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes7c528.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.292227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa8…0b24backed Yes3c501.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaaf…6188backed Yes5c500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a10…b68bbacked Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes5c492.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2590%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c484.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.02595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.