Venezuela · resolved market
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21d5b7820786486cce744024ca423015bf5c2b03530620ef4436a5f8efb9dbe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $765,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $545,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $765,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd10…a689backed Yes | 2c | 19,802$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e8…be6cbacked Yes | 3c | 15,681$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…5267backed Yes | 4c | 15,660$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…219cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 4c | 14,073$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf8…f7b4backed Yes | 4c | 11,101$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…0a62backed Yes | 5c | 10,490$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…671abacked Yes | 4c | 10,205$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,179$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b8…3aafbacked Yes | 5c | 9,996$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 2c | 9,652$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77a…daf8backed Yes | 0c | 9,055$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…bfa5backed Yes | 2c | 8,187$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…9dc0backed Yes | 4c | 7,979$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…c901backed Yes | 4c | 6,779$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 2c | 6,579$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…03e9backed Yes | 3c | 6,550$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…4dfbbacked Yes | 4c | 6,041$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 5c | 5,673$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.58 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,612$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3b…bec3backed Yes | 2c | 5,185$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eac…d2b8backed Yes | 4c | 5,141$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed Yes | 4c | 5,053$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 4c | 4,536$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6a…7305backed Yes | 2c | 4,415$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…70c0backed Yes | 5c | 4,320$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 4c | 3,985$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,973$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…7285backed Yes | 4c | 3,800$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…2121backed Yes | 5c | 3,741$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed Yes | 4c | 3,684$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…6851backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…6906backed Yes | 2c | 3,440$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…fadbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,275$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,224$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 3,029$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4378…d794backed Yes | 3c | 2,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,954$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…d1c9backed Yes | 3c | 2,941$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,788$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a9…e271backed Yes | 5c | 2,773$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbc…1545backed Yes | 4c | 2,743$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed Yes | 1c | 2,698$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa341…4bb9backed Yes | 3c | 2,469$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 2,245$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 2,228$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 2c | 2,172$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…5325backed Yes | 5c | 2,131$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…8173backed Yes | 5c | 2,112$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…0752backed Yes | 1c | 2,107$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…c5a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2a…4ab7backed Yes | 4c | 1,829$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,802$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…c5d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,785$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…aedcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,756$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…6ad4backed Yes | 3c | 1,713$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…c801backed Yes | 1c | 1,711$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…2c50backed Yes | 2c | 1,707$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 4c | 1,636$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…2429backed Yes | 2c | 1,616$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 1c | 1,550$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…78f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,521$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…fd03backed Yes | 3c | 1,482$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219d…145bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,468$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d38…0397backed Yes | 4c | 1,380$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2a…10b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,320$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 2c | 1,282$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…9e08backed Yes | 1c | 1,248$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…6e1fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,233$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…3c73backed Yes | 3c | 1,215$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…fbb3backed Yes | 4c | 1,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…448cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…a25fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,093$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…9820backed Yes | 5c | 1,088$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc096…7c0dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,059$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,047$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…7284backed Yes | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…bd8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…2af8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d1…e9c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2632backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…7418backed Yes | 5c | 910.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…789fbacked Yes | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…84a3backed Yes | 4c | 888.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…cd2bbacked Yes | 4c | 810.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf791…6ec5backed Yes | 4c | 810.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…5d05backed Yes | 3c | 799.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa181…c491backed Yes | 1c | 784.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…5868backed Yes | 2c | 772.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb58f…c323backed Yes | 4c | 756.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Yes | 2c | 750.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 14cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x285c…d137backed Yes | 3c | 735.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Yes | 4c | 731.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?this page
- Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.