TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,230

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,676 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes4c3,609$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.457816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes67c1,900$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.488739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fa…d820backed Yes4c1,669$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.34150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes47c1,569$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.514335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes20c1,292$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.723839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes27c1,164$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.8817128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes50c1,146$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.6536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes1c923.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2633741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes29c893.14$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.03633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes33c855.85$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.91020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-49.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes32c732.37$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.767632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes29c621.62$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes2c621.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe19c…0b8dbacked Yes76c560.75$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.011353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick65cpaid+12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes39c554.74$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.166041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes28c552.91$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.815040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No63c526.7$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.5117646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No42c499.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9913950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5694…9baebacked Yes53c495.32$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes33c495.21$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.4223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8778…eb86backed No71c479.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.79757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes18c472.53$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.316018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No60c460.19$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.0822547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed Yes58c442.27$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.235942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a0…4dbbbacked No67c441.27$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes36c382.04$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3715643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes40c370.27$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14817755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes34c269.97$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes37c269.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed Yes40c252.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b2…26b9backed No63c252.34$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.341050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff9…0446backed No62c249.99$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+64.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes38c236.31$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9014420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes11c189$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.124318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No59c182.67$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.474355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed No56c180$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x620d…1a14backed Yes30c171.43$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No72c154.28$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2822262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No56c151.79$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7910451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes51c150.06$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.168144.4%36 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…5392backed Yes34c145.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No63c144.61$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.227354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes32c141.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0434440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3f…1881backed Yes23c140.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c8…698abacked No39c140$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.31010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-74.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed No72c139.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed Yes38c132.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d82…ed61backed No54c129.18$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.184845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed Yes45c113.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.541050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes47c106.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2131344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x833b…d4bbbacked Yes41c101.58$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5422…a780backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-58%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes29c98.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.147850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21d9…e5d1backed Yes44c91.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.932650%13 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b8…4af7backed Yes64c90$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.54057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fba…8a7dbacked No56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4030…14c0backed No52c88.53$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.49862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4417…90e3backed Yes45c88.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.891330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes45c88.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No63c87.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7810165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f3…af0bbacked Yes56c85.22$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14c5…8bd3backed Yes55c76.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.751656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4db7…2a9abacked No56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.432075%15 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+52.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed Yes21c68.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.416621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f05…b63bbacked No73c68.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebf…3885backed No63c64.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.93966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No59c64.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7810861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed No55c63.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.83256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x873e…059bbacked No69c62.43$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed No66c60.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.222365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed No53c57.67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.084866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x149f…d306backed Yes19c57.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.736845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes71c57.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.289626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed No55c56.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+106.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xebcb…4705backed Yes40c50.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…a55cbacked No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1816440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x78c9…1078backed Yes57c49.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a9…a297backed Yes42c49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…741bbacked Yes65c46.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed Yes48c41.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09cc…421abacked No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b10…e48fbacked No49c38.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.651643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17fa…1f89backed No67c36.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.082045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9958…316abacked No56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes56c35.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24d…2ec0backed No67c35.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…0001backed No60c33.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.35875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3321333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0985…e582backed No56c32.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd24e…f8e1backed Yes60c31.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.87560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+92.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59ee…d4e3backed No72c30.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef9…a843backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.673100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x988a…e52fbacked No76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314c…612abacked No67c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7146…b28dbacked Yes56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.