Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe28c6a729b165db4eec83e6f76e45cdc25f630af0bc5a6552eef64d7d156efea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 3c | 3,277$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 10c | 1,493$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 22c | 1,252$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.09 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 73c | 1,115$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.04 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 35c | 641.57$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.34 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 48c | 593.63$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.99 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed No | 19c | 553.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.34 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…e61abacked Yes | 41c | 544.96$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 41c | 480$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 65c | 475.55$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.67 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…ddf3backed Yes | 51c | 464.78$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.26 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked Yes | 48c | 417.75$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…c601backed Yes | 5c | 263.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 31c | 225.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…f847backed Yes | 48c | 170.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…e004backed Yes | 71c | 156.86$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…61b6backed Yes | 22c | 144.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 61c | 127.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464b…8c05backed No | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39d…cf30backed No | 41c | 110.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…da31backed Yes | 69c | 107.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 50c | 101.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc835…d92abacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…2030backed No | 30c | 90.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.54per pick | 30cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked No | 21c | 77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 65c | 76.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…4b16backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 34c | 64.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f8…240abacked No | 26c | 51.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6b…48aabacked No | 27c | 42.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +266.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…8ae5backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…9c94backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 68c | 29.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4071…3de4backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…8919backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 58c | 28.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa761…55dcbacked Yes | 79c | 28.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa94b…a910backed Yes | 80c | 25.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac6…d659backed Yes | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…e5a3backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…9738backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 79c | 21.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 76c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…6d51backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdf…17fcbacked Yes | 77c | 17.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.