TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,639 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c4,825$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.581879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f4…2c5ebacked Yes2c2,488$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.91933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4417…90e3backed Yes35c1,638$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.611330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes10c1,360$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14014335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Yes30c986.55$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-77.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9a5…874dbacked Yes42c933.49$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.43650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes41c711.56$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked Yes17c687.59$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.394245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes15c619.15$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.146018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed No67c619.05$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.888739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked No62c609.97$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.964151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes47c599.95$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.8117128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes43c578.77$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.217740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes43c459.97$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7270…55acbacked No63c433.42$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.93966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes44c317.46$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9835819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked Yes45c294$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed No73c291.25$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.646944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes26c273.16$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.027632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed No60c267.24$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.242365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8acf…2f7bbacked No55c262$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes27c258.97$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.087850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c229.33$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9134234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No61c213.2$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.222262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed Yes19c199.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed No71c174.79$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.382142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes13c174.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6931344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No57c174.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.022050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5b…942dbacked No58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed No65c170$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.32887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes37c168.54$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.952245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c162$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed No56c152$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.882347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No79c148.85$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9610165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes51c141$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.911643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae7…0fd1backed No72c140$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e23…ff24backed No62c138.55$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.65425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes42c131.69$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.773836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No49c122.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a76…3022backed No60c119.26$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.122352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe46b…55f0backed No60c117.15$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed No49c112$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.12850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58f…fd67backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes24c99.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2415331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09cc…421abacked No63c99.3$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.231361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed No53c94.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.091471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+106.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4030…14c0backed No47c91.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.37862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes23c87.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes44c84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.96933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4db7…2a9abacked No53c82.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.752075%15 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+52.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x290c…8045backed No48c81.48$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84a4…474ebacked No58c81.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd28e…43cdbacked No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No55c79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.553545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No55c75.71$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.995743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x083e…9e03backed No61c74.61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…a55cbacked No55c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes44c68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.921127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x460d…6232backed Yes44c65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x667f…8c3ebacked No56c65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d82…ed61backed No78c63.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.774845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…8046backed No64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8778…eb86backed No74c60.96$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.96757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes34c59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.066725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed No50c58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.864866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8c4e…eda6backed Yes47c57.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fa6…2fb3backed No71c56.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.622676.9%20 W · 6 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8c04…adafbacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f7…8e4ebacked No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa67d…a852backed Yes40c49.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-75.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0687…87d7backed No56c49.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf483…4e2cbacked No64c47.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes45c47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8a…5ba0backed No53c46.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.971080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec88…2c91backed Yes45c46.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab4…a62dbacked No66c45.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes52c45.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5217755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17fa…1f89backed No56c45.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.642045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6364…4b34backed Yes39c44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No62c43.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.431250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f94…ce11backed Yes36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…231bbacked No49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9958…316abacked No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc99c…5c6bbacked No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x26c7…264fbacked No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61560%9 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+93.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9281backed Yes38c39.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbbb…69bcbacked No52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-59.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dab…73b3backed No53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7410451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed No57c37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.921533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…0001backed No56c35.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.64875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2aa…5980backed No66c35.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b52…c945backed Yes58c34.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0985…e582backed No58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3692…5748backed No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.