Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46fe6f305997e9c0913e46034b51ed46ed2f9705150e38f55b3087d3e74d3c0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2eca…b53cbacked No | 0c | 23,895$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 1c | 5,050$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…6d7fbacked No | 0c | 3,142$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 4c | 2,972$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…9a83backed No | 3c | 1,775$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…2552backed No | 7c | 1,750$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,010$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.22 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 2c | 824.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 47c | 423.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.98 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 60c | 341.67$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 43c | 299.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 262.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.91 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 61c | 254.67$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…3105backed No | 42c | 237.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…7aa8backed No | 54c | 233.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…29fdbacked No | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 57c | 199.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…cba5backed No | 79c | 183.19$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f5f1backed No | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd772…ba5bbacked No | 73c | 136.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 18c | 125.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…0d74backed No | 70c | 123$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…34fcbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed Yes | 27c | 96.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 43c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 40c | 66.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cbacbacked Yes | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 47c | 53.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…5c2fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 49.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…f585backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 41c | 48.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…af22backed Yes | 42c | 48.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +64%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 46.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…ef84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 40c | 33.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 40c | 30.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…ea82backed Yes | 33c | 30.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…fea5backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 39c | 26.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 59c | 24.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…647bbacked Yes | 59c | 17.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.