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Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$203,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,702 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 254 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3164…3033backed Yes54c15,260$8,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,313.058056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No64c8,752$5,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.585042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8c…68dfbacked No60c7,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8002100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c6,740$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.681879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b34…a1b9backed Yes40c6,020$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7643…1c1cbacked Yes40c5,500$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No38c5,453$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,372.6137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes0c5,050$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.959410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No64c4,594$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.7317931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e28…e313backed No60c4,520$2,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No51c4,445$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.693953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No18c4,242$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,486.279647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes25c3,312$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.066018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No43c3,257$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.225623.2%13 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a12…9d86backed Yes6c2,835$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752020%4 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4909…65a6backed Yes10c2,240$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed Yes30c2,140$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.55123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes9c2,096$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes46c2,057$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.025032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No41c2,000$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.81741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c1,863$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.191,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1b…2552backed No17c1,767$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.781233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed No7c1,703$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.3810426%27 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…6f83backed Yes28c1,676$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c1,577$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.677636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No62c1,523$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.8812654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No35c1,502$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.575635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No76c1,500$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.881040%4 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-43.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No36c1,438$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.7451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes79c1,398$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.964156.1%23 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…c399backed Yes11c1,224$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa8…fc2dbacked Yes79c1,173$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4b0…8908backed Yes14c1,102$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4af2backed Yes1c1,029$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes77c1,025$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.5513746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdd…f158backed No13c1,021$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.3785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+578.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No28c993.68$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.0740939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d3…2acebacked No28c928.35$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+253.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes76c907.56$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.83735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes64c900$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.368552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes28c831.65$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8410244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc270…5482backed Yes19c800.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed Yes7c800.92$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.662065%13 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No49c791$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.8533337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec8b…b000backed Yes24c773.53$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed No24c610.07$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.035540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39bb…db3ebacked Yes78c600$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes14c540$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x14b7…a655backed Yes70c522.42$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes13c517.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.572035%7 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9e…be96backed Yes49c510.59$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7130…773dbacked Yes5c507.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes2c503.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x082e…cd4cbacked No20c498.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf470…62d2backed Yes71c491.66$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Yes42c478.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.89580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+131.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Yes4c449.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1172…e2e5backed Yes5c431.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No27c416.61$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.3947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc850…a960backed No29c409.93$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.931030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes54c399.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.992642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed Yes60c334.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes31c310.38$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2685725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2541…60acbacked Yes60c310.04$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1853537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f23…27cbbacked Yes66c304.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-33.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c300$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8d67…a05bbacked Yes7c294.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes19c291$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes15c289.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5119534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x873e…f01abacked Yes7c288.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9379…2e25backed Yes9c273.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes35c273.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.986549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc111…8fb6backed Yes46c269.05$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.06837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick62cpaid-46.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0fb…2bd4backed No8c262.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,212.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81b…f63dbacked Yes79c252.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked No16c251.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.88450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+151.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No11c250$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.566136.1%22 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca0…4ccebacked No20c240.89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x119e…386bbacked No24c233.25$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+98.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42ea…e03ebacked Yes48c232.68$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+110.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No48c231.15$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.334678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes24c224.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5519428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…951abacked No7c213.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.41944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick15cpaid+1,986.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5c7…5510backed No76c210.04$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.954168.3%28 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick65cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3c…a060backed No35c205.5$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+186.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.997632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12445843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No16c200$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.515331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54bb…f873backed Yes39c196.34$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked No37c195.18$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.476061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No38c191.74$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.733537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c6c…00b9backed No24c188.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.72520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa01f…7f78backed No11c184.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+823.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb0a…73b7backed No67c180.93$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…ed98backed Yes18c171.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf8…1fa4backed Yes64c160$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffb…7cbfbacked Yes10c153.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.58250%41 W · 41 L+10.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd015…2480backed No50c145.86$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67c…608bbacked Yes41c143.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.