TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,527
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,366

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,527 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No79c3,386$2,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.3517755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes20c2,000$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3927632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c1,642$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.361879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4417…90e3backed Yes35c1,337$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.931330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2b…9115backed No76c1,312$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed No70c1,264$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.98739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes25c971.32$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.3538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c69…d906backed Yes2c764.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a5…874dbacked Yes44c721.77$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes16c700$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes47c499.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9917128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes12c418.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.281942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No53c396.26$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.245743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes25c373.22$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.617850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes42c357.64$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes20c350$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes25c342.94$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.322547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes35c307.09$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.024429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No70c286.84$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3410165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes15c249$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2215331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes27c196.84$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1517646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed No64c185$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.05887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No71c184.35$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3522262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c184.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes23c180.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4416225.9%42 W · 120 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked Yes29c168.37$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.494245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes26c164$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.796725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes17c141.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.126018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb05…9c30backed No73c128.03$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.29757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes18c127.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.999626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4030…14c0backed No49c122.64$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c120.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9754…bef1backed No59c116.18$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+13.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Yes12c115.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.36812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-77.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No53c113.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3810451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2421926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7535652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5422…a780backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-58%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9ca8…3d47backed No55c95.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.731580%12 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd28e…43cdbacked No54c89.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fba…8a7dbacked No59c85.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.131850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed No62c84.51$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.512365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed No56c79$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.761471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+106.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes20c77.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…8046backed No59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes28c66.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.737335.6%26 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f0…0cb6backed No75c66.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed No55c64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…c4ffbacked Yes33c61.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09cc…421abacked No61c60.65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.381361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed No55c52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeebf…3885backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x792d…8332backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+105.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…d93ebacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8a…5ba0backed No53c46.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.971080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed No59c45.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.773839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No67c41.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.764151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No53c41.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5931344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd85…231bbacked No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9958…316abacked No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04d7…0001backed No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed No55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.24866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0985…e582backed No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x730f…b330backed No55c34.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17fa…1f89backed No56c34.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.022045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…a14abacked No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.513140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72bd…e51ebacked No69c29.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de3…bf66backed No75c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa78f…2af6backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c20.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7957…ed88backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecca…6a15backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.64161%25 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde93…0283backed No74c19.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd135…a903backed No80c18.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbac…ee2fbacked No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.