Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3f907d50de828ae910a5f1272ac963eb54ef520802503ebbdd3746f151ab4e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 7,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 2c | 6,777$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 32c | 1,071$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.04 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed No | 3c | 509.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 399.98$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 67c | 390.86$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 36c | 284$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 36c | 275$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c07…8c2bbacked Yes | 73c | 274.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f1…0e10backed No | 41c | 244.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 53c | 240$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 60c | 199.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…f657backed Yes | 71c | 193.95$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 64c | 175.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed No | 30c | 170$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…f098backed No | 60c | 167.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 65c | 163.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…97a2backed No | 63c | 163.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 75c | 148.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 13c | 140.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…ce0bbacked Yes | 42c | 100.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 52c | 99.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 61c | 97.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 75c | 96.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…0d8ebacked No | 50c | 96.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 30c | 90.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 36c | 83.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…8ae5backed No | 67c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 36c | 73.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd1…ee93backed No | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…204abacked No | 65c | 61.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 56.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…4e93backed No | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 48.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…f470backed Yes | 35c | 43.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 41.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…588bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…0693backed Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…41aebacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…dec0backed Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 58c | 39.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…e2a7backed No | 52c | 38.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…09f4backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…d786backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…4f7dbacked Yes | 38c | 30.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…d7cbbacked No | 63c | 30.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…a702backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7afa…5cb0backed No | 52c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…7b68backed Yes | 50c | 28.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…f847backed Yes | 48c | 27.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…b73cbacked Yes | 66c | 26.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…eb87backed Yes | 47c | 24.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 57c | 20.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…ef1abacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…7e75backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.