Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e12895b3dc701eb19ef87e1819bb8a7d16cae2c2e33977ed6e9ee1566b5578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed No | 1c | 8,100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8147…5039backed No | 7c | 6,189$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 16c | 5,042$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.75 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 4c | 4,284$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.67 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 0c | 3,623$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…032abacked No | 2c | 3,436$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 73c | 3,397$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.19 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 16c | 3,132$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.34 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 3c | 2,956$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…5ce7backed No | 5c | 2,448$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…3e8cbacked No | 2c | 2,277$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 11c | 1,918$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.26 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 27c | 1,873$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.83 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…3371backed No | 7c | 1,425$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…de95backed No | 26c | 1,301$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 1c | 1,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed No | 8c | 1,281$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 6c | 1,238$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 76c | 1,205$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.36 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 9c | 1,188$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 19c | 1,092$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.03 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a6…fe97backed No | 4c | 1,062$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 38c | 1,048$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.85 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…93d1backed No | 4c | 1,037$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…4d95backed No | 16c | 1,036$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…ab25backed Yes | 56c | 844.9$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 14c | 833.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed No | 44c | 799.98$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 73c | 776.69$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 2c | 771.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 20c | 762.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed No | 7c | 722.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 71c | 689.75$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 55c | 668.87$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.9 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 27c | 633.52$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.45 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…0eb3backed Yes | 62c | 561.57$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 23c | 560$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 21c | 538.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…a21cbacked No | 23c | 515.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…0ba9backed No | 9c | 508.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…625abacked No | 9c | 497.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d94…2ecdbacked No | 14c | 487.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed No | 28c | 466.45$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 13c | 461.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63d…f4e8backed No | 7c | 426.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 14c | 420.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 26c | 399.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 10c | 345.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…41aebacked No | 11c | 310$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No | 5c | 300.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6039…03a0backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…b538backed No | 15c | 295.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 15c | 287.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…8bd6backed No | 44c | 281.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x763b…4777backed No | 30c | 275.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 26c | 269.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…8887backed No | 13c | 258.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 69c | 256$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed No | 20c | 252.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 74c | 243.3$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 10c | 233.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…0d9dbacked No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 10c | 214.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…677fbacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 53c | 194.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed No | 6c | 185.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc078…6cd0backed Yes | 56c | 178.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 9c | 170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…3a1bbacked No | 12c | 166.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 74c | 162.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 9c | 159.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc43a…349ebacked Yes | 67c | 143.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…4ca3backed No | 34c | 143.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…efdabacked No | 15c | 137.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755b…f4f5backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…7c77backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…b73cbacked Yes | 48c | 118.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…7ba2backed No | 44c | 114.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd60a…5a90backed No | 18c | 109.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 14c | 108.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 32c | 107.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…e99abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 24c | 97.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…6778backed No | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 31c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…05d0backed Yes | 58c | 79.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 22c | 69.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 48c | 62.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.