TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,648

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,955 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f2a…58afbacked No57c3,346$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.6717414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8045…c601backed Yes4c2,380$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes28c1,771$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49614335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No65c1,554$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.7535355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes17c1,132$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.613228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes49c1,100$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412626.9%7 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes33c999.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33017931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes24c951.77$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.581931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce22…94e9backed Yes2c884.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes8c854.94$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.371879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes42c720.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes44c700$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30523525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes39c599.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2358056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes38c570.93$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.6756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c551.48$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.5764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd486…2287backed Yes63c522.76$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…ab31backed Yes4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a12…9d86backed Yes45c441.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002020%4 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c99…317cbacked No66c416.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.83757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes26c390.08$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4335819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes37c300$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11215331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15c5…5c5cbacked No60c270$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2017…d58fbacked Yes39c230$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x590a…204abacked No64c218.28$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.481442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes7c218.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.389827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb89…9469backed Yes44c215$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.46546.2%30 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes9c211.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No50c207.59$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.933337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes35c199.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x648f…a6f2backed No79c191.8$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.78366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes36c184.54$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c9e…c9cdbacked No62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Yes47c173.74$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.031921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d92…3239backed No63c157.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.711323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe6f…7495backed No65c154.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.781060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c3…812dbacked No66c152.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed Yes33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes11c149.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a08…02a9backed Yes40c148.39$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e81…dbccbacked No68c146.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c145.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed No74c135.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.21650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes39c130.43$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.119534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked No63c127.9$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d4…6d7ebacked No64c122.88$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d02…f9dabacked Yes42c112.36$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbee…7820backed No61c110$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes33c109.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.053537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368744.8%39 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+101.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba7…dec0backed No58c96.32$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.781353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe988…1291backed No53c91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa94e…d16dbacked Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed No59c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9e…ef77backed No63c79.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa725…996ebacked Yes52c77.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-59.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked No67c74.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.511442.9%6 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd992…96c0backed Yes15c73.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.792556%14 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f23…bd87backed Yes37c70.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+118.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No37c66.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7212932.6%42 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7918…f39fbacked No62c64.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5934…4799backed No42c61.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+96.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb1…ae4abacked Yes38c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes34c54.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1723839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eca…b53cbacked No62c51.25$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.521457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.56944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b6…00dfbacked Yes40c49.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc85a…afb1backed Yes41c49.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3af7…7e34backed No63c48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7b…af22backed No65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.151080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0aa…612cbacked Yes60c45.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5fd…1678backed Yes38c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf551…90ddbacked Yes60c44.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe50…3a28backed Yes48c43.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes58c42.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252277.3%17 W · 5 L+6.9wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+103.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes45c42.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2931344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes59c40.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.89334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfa5…3f52backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.166657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes66c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.271172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+100.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec12…9d86backed Yes38c39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes37c37.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.087353.4%39 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc985…4b09backed Yes39c35.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fe…4716backed Yes41c34.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203030%9 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes34c33.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.393151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d2…d753backed No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+45.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d63…348dbacked No63c31.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+51.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c53…c46bbacked No67c31.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1fb…90c7backed No65c30.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.63636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc0…d42fbacked No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4854…0887backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.260%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.115643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab7f…d263backed No37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+37.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc62a…29bdbacked Yes34c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17dc…7306backed No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8867…4ae5backed Yes40c29.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.