TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,671 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f42…b88fbacked No66c8,533$5,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,909.8836750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No63c3,493$2,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.4242738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes46c3,347$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.4851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No45c2,130$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.7938247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2229…e543backed Yes17c1,844$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.23425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes27c1,683$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.436018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes48c1,550$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74014335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab5…b081backed Yes28c1,402$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes16c1,250$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9923525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes2c1,199$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes7c1,154$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.361879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes22c1,046$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No62c1,007$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.15253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No76c994$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.57254.2%39 W · 33 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a12…9d86backed Yes2c932.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202020%4 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d9e…dc6abacked Yes6c906$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes9c830.03$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.514940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd11e…699fbacked Yes21c822.2$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5b…a9debacked Yes62c745.72$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No69c723.83$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.596240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No32c638.73$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.5135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes62c600$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3709552.6%50 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes42c600$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2532944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes9c579.91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-69.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes27c537.55$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9834440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed No43c532.95$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.32812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes14c465.24$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6638237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No7c427.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.033151.6%16 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.38per pick14cpaid+350.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked No50c399.99$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c399.98$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes9c391.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.385042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked No35c370$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.62740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes18c299.05$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c07…8c2bbacked Yes35c282.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No74c267.58$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.364678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe6f…7495backed No76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.161060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02b0…0f82backed Yes51c259.74$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes11c252.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.721330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes16c251$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.985541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b9…27d0backed Yes41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes9c239$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.192857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed Yes7c231.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.425540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9350…25d1backed No43c231.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aba…7442backed No54c223.37$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+132.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No75c220.66$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.789443.6%41 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked No29c210.32$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.073228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes18c201.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes55c200.04$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9723839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468636%31 W · 55 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes49c200$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6917414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No53c199.5$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No43c192.66$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.816621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d39…a718backed No39c192.24$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.24944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc850…a960backed No53c189.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.381030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes10c187.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.783240.6%13 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65dc…0b11backed Yes30c177.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5870%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No58c176.95$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9618929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes17c173.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked Yes28c153$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.841040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes26c151.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa09…cde0backed Yes66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes28c151.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No76c150$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.914352.4%75 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65bd…275dbacked No48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No30c146.52$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e2…9631backed No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bd…7e75backed No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-66.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe88…f1eabacked No72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x929b…ca77backed No72c138.27$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No72c136$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.081457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No78c135.26$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.769057.8%52 W · 38 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+44.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce21…0b2abacked No76c131.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c130.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes80c125.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6713935.3%49 W · 90 L-14.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0d7…e451backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes74c125$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8818151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes17c119.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No66c115.55$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.14035%14 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaeb5…0d8ebacked No41c114.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0060…4cc4backed Yes47c113$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed No34c108.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.583969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No72c106$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.68944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb9f…346fbacked No76c105.26$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes39c104.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.441553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes31c97.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303030%9 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No37c94.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.231719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed Yes28c93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.04850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cc…0009backed Yes77c90.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Yes13c80.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3dc…ce0bbacked No51c78.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.82540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes20c76.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9510244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes56c74.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.663534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes29c68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7235355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.673860.5%23 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd1…ee93backed No53c63.47$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.051471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes25c59.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.816440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1544…6f27backed Yes21c59.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb4…1ee7backed No57c58.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.212552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7247…a3e4backed No68c53.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.