TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7aba…7442

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
380
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 57 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST12545.6%57 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 125 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aston Villa FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$522.84
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$19.32
West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+37%+$5.55
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$71.16
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+42.9%+$5.81
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$50.14
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$16.95
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+63.9%+$15.04
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$60.09
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$96.19
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+170.3%+$80.91
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+43.5%+$24.07
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+53.8%+$80.77
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$35.5
Chelsea FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+25%+$7.17
Wolves vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$149
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$184.63
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Tottenham vs. Brentford: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$470
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+92.2%+$230.6
Manchester United vs. West Ham: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+76%+$171.74
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$107.11
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+78.6%+$39.29
Showing 25 of 125 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST7045.7%32 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+81.8%+$21.39
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+72.4%+$36.87
Will CA Osasuna win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+143.7%+$17.51
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$12.46
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-12-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$59
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+127.3%+$63.64
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+37%+$18.57
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Sevilla win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$105
Will Valencia win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Elche CF vs. Girona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+119%+$155.78
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$430
Will Villarreal win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+72.4%+$181.03
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+75.4%+$113.16
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+85.2%+$102.22
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-12-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+85.2%+$10.22
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$881Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$881.06
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$702Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+92.3%+$647.56
Will Getafe vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$95
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST5352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DR Congo win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+28.2%+$4.05
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$11.5
Will Senegal win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$38.54
Will Angola win on 2025-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+81.8%+$50.73
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+56.3%+$17.32
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+42.9%+$21.43
Will DR Congo win on 2025-12-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+66.7%+$30.48
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+158.2%+$785.55
Will Denmark win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Scotland vs. Denmark end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$237.22
Will Chad win on 2025-11-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+122.2%+$34.22
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+76.7%+$154.02
Will Italy win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+244.8%+$667.79
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+105.3%+$273.32
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$103.46
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$199.52
Will Liechtenstein vs. Wales end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+118.5%+$355.61
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$285
Will Italy win on 2025-11-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+61.6%+$6.48
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+49.3%+$105.9
Will Italy win on 2025-10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+35.4%+$159.12
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT3652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$62.54
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$52.51
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$26.51
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+48.2%+$9.18
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$15.47
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$21.28
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,050
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$87.03
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,067Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,066.92
Will Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$240
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+45.7%+$205.84
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+186.9%+$248.79
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+55.9%+$193.02
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$942Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$485.26
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.96
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$56.41
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$114.08
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+37%+$24.2
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$31.71
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+64.9%+$182.21
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+48.6%+$24.54
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.25
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST2560%15 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+45.8%+$6.86
Bulls vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Magic vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+40.8%+$4.49
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$14.47
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+46.5%+$7.03
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+75.4%+$10.18
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Lakers vs. Raptorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+127.3%+$40.73
Warriors vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+58.7%+$20.56
Clippers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$38.64
Grizzlies vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+53.8%+$21.54
Clippers vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+42.9%+$10.71
Hawks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+96.1%+$182.55
Warriors vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+47.1%+$108.41
Raptors vs. 76ersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+85.3%+$102.35
Grizzlies vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+44.9%+$134.84
Hornets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+31.6%+$111.91
Bucks vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Trail Blazers vs. Magicbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Timberwolves vs. Kingsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+49.3%+$50.24
Lakers vs. Hawksbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$718.99
Bulls vs. Bucksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$121.87
Rockets vs. Spursbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$350.72
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$675.37
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+75.4%+$203.68
All 25 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST2050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+117.4%+$11.76
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+66.7%+$6.78
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+143.9%+$21.59
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10.11
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+88.7%+$443.4
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+150%+$300
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$21.43
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,905Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+57.9%+$1,103.06
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$50.54
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Will Verona win on 2025-10-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$234.92
Will Udinese win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Udinese vs. AC Milan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Inter vs. Udinese end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.84
Will Inter win on 2025-08-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.94
Will Napoli vs. Cagliari end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.48
Will Napoli win on 2025-08-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$27.86
All 20 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST1747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+47.1%+$19.25
Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2025-12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+170.3%+$22.44
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+35.1%+$3.76
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2025-12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-11-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-11-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$806Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$806.29
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$446Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$446
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-10-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will FC Basel win on 2025-10-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$22.55
Will Feyenoord win on 2025-10-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.54
Will PAOK win on 2025-10-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Nottingham Forest vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$18.87
Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$10.22
All 17 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$51.57
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+127.3%+$16.76
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+61.8%+$9.27
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+69.5%+$10.81
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+40.8%+$8.9
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+53.8%+$10.77
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$42.07
RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+34.7%+$69.46
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$70.48
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$897Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+90.7%+$813.64
Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$13.56
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Stade Brestois 29 vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+61.3%+$50.26
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+117.4%+$115.15
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.83
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will FC Nantes win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$250.56
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.36
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-09-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+132.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+179.7%+$53.9
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+86.1%+$103.37
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Commanders vs. Dolphinsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+124.4%+$93.27
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+92.3%+$50.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+166%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pakistan ODI Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 1)backed Pakistan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+166%+$302.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
D4vd arrested by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+77.6%+$31.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-01-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+25.5%+$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$22.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.