Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a84b51666a4c55e28c92f774fc362f9aa21511e49c7a7beecd53f824fc11153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 67c | 4,000$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669.99 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 32c | 1,506$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.36 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 1,501$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 34c | 706$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 66c | 675.8$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.04 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked No | 32c | 622.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed No | 31c | 597.74$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 30c | 414.71$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 67c | 391.81$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.87 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 34c | 332.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.77 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 31c | 312$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.25 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed No | 74c | 269.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 44c | 239$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.16 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 53c | 225$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Yes | 67c | 126.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 34c | 109.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…510ebacked Yes | 66c | 88.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed No | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 33c | 60.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 34c | 51.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…dcaabacked Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.