Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef9aa8c99a626567f1ad14563e567d9f8d01684f55766418cfa835c410a754dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 11,794$5,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,014.93 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over | 52c | 3,332$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 2,901$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d17…bc4cbacked Over | 51c | 2,173$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 1,918$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.23 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 28c | 1,656$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Over | 51c | 1,414$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…1424backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 51c | 941.03$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.06 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 66c | 860$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.08 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Over | 48c | 654$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.46 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 560$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.98 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 38c | 399.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 50c | 387$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.76 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 58c | 381.47$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.84 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 323.58$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.12 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 232.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fe…e803backed Over | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 222$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 32c | 167.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 48c | 164$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 111.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…f3d7backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 81.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…45e7backed Under | 51c | 61.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 48c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…5fcabacked Over | 53c | 55.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Over | 53c | 48.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 49c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 49c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 49c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 61c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.