Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed6d18de94614dbde1cfaf2783a9c863ae6fe8c32b6116612e4f5b06cfe2d94b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RB Leipzigof RB Leipzig, Werder Bremen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3102…187cbacked RB Leipzig | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Werder Bremen | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Werder Bremen | 56c | 2,364$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked RB Leipzig | 43c | 950$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.5 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Werder Bremen | 57c | 547.01$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.89 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed RB Leipzig | 45c | 395.56$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Werder Bremen | 54c | 256.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed RB Leipzig | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Werder Bremen | 55c | 192$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Werder Bremen | 57c | 189.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Werder Bremen | 57c | 164.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…45cebacked RB Leipzig | 42c | 146.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…d0c4backed Werder Bremen | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked RB Leipzig | 46c | 129.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed RB Leipzig | 42c | 120.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed RB Leipzig | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked RB Leipzig | 42c | 108.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Werder Bremen | 44c | 105.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed RB Leipzig | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Werder Bremen | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked RB Leipzig | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked RB Leipzig | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked RB Leipzig | 43c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked RB Leipzig | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…f3d7backed RB Leipzig | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Werder Bremen | 61c | 51.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed RB Leipzig | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed RB Leipzig | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Werder Bremen | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d82…14ddbacked RB Leipzig | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked RB Leipzig | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Werder Bremen | 57c | 25.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Werder Bremen | 57c | 23.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…ac33backed Werder Bremen | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)this page
- RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.