Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac7102a2585dd50b53502accb9f8ccf988727deb653a9a8156f2f57317c2e8cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 17c | 6,424$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.35 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 2,728$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.45 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 2,606$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.87 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 14c | 2,179$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.48 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 30c | 968.5$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.53 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 40c | 850.93$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.37 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 10c | 813$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 31c | 744.57$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 697.14$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.19 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 32c | 479$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 30c | 393.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 80c | 370$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 16c | 302.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 72c | 137.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8915…1b98backed Yes | 33c | 83.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4859…0bb1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…5c63backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 67c | 43.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 80c | 30.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-02?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.