TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$497,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$535,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $497,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0764…e01fbacked No26c402,330$103,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,597.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes74c110,000$81,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,6001241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Yes74c100,937$75,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,904.114055%22 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes75c69,443$51,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,645.979053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes75c50,722$37,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,901.53,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Yes74c20,000$14,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2005954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed Yes74c17,948$13,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,666.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes74c15,200$11,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,95216652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No25c8,166$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.53429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7502…beafbacked Yes75c6,059$4,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes78c5,387$4,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes80c5,071$4,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.321323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-66.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed No25c4,896$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22415540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No21c4,059$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.9223745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes78c3,843$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.681681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes77c3,570$2,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.2222332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes79c3,343$2,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.254062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+98.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked No21c2,536$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.262458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed No24c2,269$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.84042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No23c2,049$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.37111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8a7…818bbacked Yes80c1,956$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes75c1,450$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.538055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No21c1,422$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.6924258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe782…e7d9backed Yes76c1,405$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.71040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Yes75c1,354$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.442040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes75c1,324$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3314772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked No24c1,320$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Yes76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.796360.3%38 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes76c1,100$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x736f…d0c5backed Yes74c1,057$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.97475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes75c1,030$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.563644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed No20c999.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Yes78c962.86$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.866350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes78c670$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.19173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…c57abacked Yes79c632.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.053100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed No23c599.97$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.991414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed No25c595$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7515024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x823d…8091backed Yes76c560$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420b…8c6bbacked Yes71c559.62$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.625100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed No14c538.75$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.691050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27a9…8781backed Yes79c508.01$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.241637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010454.8%57 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e86…93c2backed No23c499.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd970…c9efbacked Yes78c454.27$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41b…4fdfbacked Yes76c431.85$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.14850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed No25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b9…9613backed Yes78c355.72$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.71977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9c…e860backed Yes76c317.48$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5be…c98dbacked Yes77c311.69$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No24c296.44$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.143158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No20c293.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.692,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes79c258$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.47850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…6a00backed Yes78c240.63$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.741369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes76c227.93$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.72240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…5a9ebacked Yes76c225.96$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes75c225.75$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.441163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+33%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes77c220.78$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No23c219.93$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5810942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked No24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Yes76c173.68$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.682544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda17…e752backed Yes80c163.56$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7256…30c9backed No31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No25c160.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.21030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…3547backed Yes77c142.22$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.716100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+100.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Yes78c140.38$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.884671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed Yes74c137$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.372050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c7e…3748backed Yes76c134.47$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac8c…81cdbacked Yes78c133.33$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+115.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68f9…d046backed Yes77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.87366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Yes74c115$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.91369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab1c…f1fbbacked Yes77c109.85$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.69366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…751ebacked Yes76c108.8$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No20c108$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.69520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No21c106$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4111860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef9f…425ebacked Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241090%9 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick75cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked No23c99.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.929721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes78c99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No20c99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f63…6693backed Yes78c98.7$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d56…71dabacked Yes76c98.68$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes76c92.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.114454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf9…5e7abacked Yes76c86.7$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf5c…e309backed Yes76c80.55$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes75c80.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.54070%28 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes76c79.6$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.851485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+35.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe97a…29c7backed Yes76c79.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aba…7442backed Yes80c67.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.561181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed No22c67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9624322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.674261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No23c64.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9410347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d43…438abacked Yes79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a12…d83bbacked Yes77c62.91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Yes74c53.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.841163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.