TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Lakers, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,198,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,181,469

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,198,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,686 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks37c145,951$53,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,287.052,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Lakers63c139,000$88,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,059.3336148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Lakers66c75,000$49,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,725.5820253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4991…5ecdbacked Hawks33c62,655$20,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,978.632626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Hawks49c59,129$29,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,991.3847448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers65c50,908$33,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,317.8385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Lakers62c40,008$24,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,891.117739%30 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Hawks39c30,934$12,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,906.696352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Hawks34c26,471$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,470.5910930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Hawks34c25,686$8,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,952.9324650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Hawks39c25,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,249.965442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Lakers39c24,755$9,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,536.8825925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers65c21,836$14,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,133.952,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Lakers62c20,073$12,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,445.251,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Lakers0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2036423.4%85 W · 279 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Hawks37c20,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,599.9951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Hawks59c18,312$10,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,573.3826038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Lakers60c16,593$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Hawks34c16,523$5,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,941.0671052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1252…dec2backed Lakers54c15,000$8,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,1204052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Hawks33c15,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,049.994766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xebf1…1d5dbacked Lakers67c14,922$9,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,997.53757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hawks35c14,207$4,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,255.9869852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Lakers67c12,031$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,1006155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Hawks36c11,667$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,466.679445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14c3…bfb9backed Lakers1c11,393$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1617256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Hawks37c11,005$4,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,894.052,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks34c10,500$3,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,904.992,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lakers55c10,000$5,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5071,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Lakers0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1038545.7%176 W · 209 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Hawks39c9,159$3,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,562.679344.1%41 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Lakers53c8,422$4,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,459.58936%32 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Lakers54c8,121$4,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,403.3512334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hawks50c8,017$3,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,033.2985344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Lakers68c6,948$4,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,724.6480146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Lakers66c6,923$4,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,596.5720055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Hawks71c6,642$4,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.052060%12 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Hawks40c6,605$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,963.2619249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe887…05cabacked Lakers64c6,540$4,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,185.71040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hawks70c6,394$4,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.561,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Hawks36c6,257$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,020.4661835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Lakers58c6,100$3,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,540.9913345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75fc…a53abacked Hawks41c6,000$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,540850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6d22backed Lakers60c6,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Lakers67c5,849$3,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,918.927437.8%28 W · 46 L-9.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcdf7…9189backed Lakers20c5,844$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.12837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Lakers53c5,484$2,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9328846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed Hawks35c5,468$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,549.426254.8%34 W · 28 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Hawks36c5,253$1,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,351.678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef4…32a1backed Hawks32c5,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,40010041%41 W · 59 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Lakers2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.992010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Lakers60c4,980$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004623.9%11 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Lakers62c4,837$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Lakers45c4,726$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.4750838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Lakers67c4,576$3,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.997459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Hawks39c4,463$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.151250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Lakers2c4,300$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.451,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Lakers66c4,022$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.8161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Hawks34c4,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,64018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Hawks35c4,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.996636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Hawks39c3,892$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.175925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x991e…f4abbacked Lakers52c3,813$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.11442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+44.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Hawks33c3,697$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.993246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hawks34c3,550$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3431,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks36c3,471$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.913,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6b…a33dbacked Lakers7c3,400$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25410914.7%16 W · 93 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Hawks61c3,121$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.71,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Hawks35c3,100$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.9645348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers47c3,047$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.413,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hawks39c3,043$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.892,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks36c3,038$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.792,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lakers60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Hawks34c3,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,98043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Lakers64c3,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Lakers1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.37502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Hawks40c2,998$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.9995049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa83b…0e4abacked Lakers67c2,985$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007050%35 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Hawks35c2,913$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.941848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Hawks54c2,866$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.4566744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers63c2,684$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Hawks37c2,527$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.3273647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Lakers50c2,500$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25229037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x69e9…dee1backed Lakers64c2,500$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.993333.3%11 W · 22 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Hawks33c2,329$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.1324330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Hawks38c2,250$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.4639958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed Hawks60c2,195$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.464940.8%20 W · 29 L-6.4wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0986…9c4bbacked Lakers55c2,193$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Hawks36c2,173$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.4992753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Hawks62c2,110$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.1547144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5128…13d9backed Lakers32c2,100$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+117.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Hawks39c2,100$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.9919441.2%80 W · 114 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Hawks78c2,035$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.3217141.5%71 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lakers50c2,015$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.6381529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Lakers61c2,000$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2241,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Lakers6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12027917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29bf…25b0backed Lakers40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002060%12 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Hawks39c1,984$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.073,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Hawks39c1,942$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.7420453.9%110 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8b…152bbacked Hawks39c1,908$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.8615945.9%73 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked Lakers34c1,868$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.481758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.