NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb55cf71c973a252b4829bee6086c6d614e340543367423e9a0cd3bcb574c3606

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,394 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaf5d…7253backed Over	48c	3,000$1,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,440	112	42.9%48 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Under	52c	2,080$1,082 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$998.4	303	51.8%157 W · 146 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	48c	1,417$685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$731.23	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	50c	818.03$406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.46	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over	51c	797.56$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Under	52c	735.59$383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.08	127	40.2%51 W · 76 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	417	42%175 W · 242 L	-16.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	52c	300$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	48c	265.3$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.77	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Over	48c	250$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	248	35.1%87 W · 161 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Over	49c	209$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.41	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	51c	206.12$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0e…5b17backed Over	49c	206.12$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	46c	197.52$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.66	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over	49c	180$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.2	339	50.1%170 W · 169 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Over	50c	180$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	272	47.8%130 W · 142 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7c…43a5backed Over	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	49	69.4%34 W · 15 L	+5.6wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a8a…b155backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	50c	73$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.49	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b23…39fdbacked Over	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Under	48c	35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.15	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x417d…62c7backed Under	52c	28.56$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.71	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.17per pick	59cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4738…35cebacked Over	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	50c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Under	52c	22.4$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.75	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd2b…e3b1backed Over	54c	22.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4bf…2ccdbacked Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	59cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event