NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cd595ba31cd858a8b99d2d761b040b3c76dfe93d7af1f8ad54b81f503d6a3f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Lakers, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Lakers | 51c | 11,389$5,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,800.91 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Hawks | 49c | 10,560$5,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,405.12 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 50c | 10,100$5,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,050.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lakers | 50c | 9,640$4,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,820 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 47c | 8,013$3,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,269.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Lakers | 53c | 6,834$3,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,622.04 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Lakers | 53c | 3,798$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.96 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hawks | 47c | 2,820$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.75 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lakers | 51c | 2,138$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.88 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hawks | 48c | 1,583$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.76 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Lakers | 55c | 1,268$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.36 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Hawks | 45c | 1,268$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.36 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks | 49c | 1,054$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.74 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Lakers | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 49c | 852$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.29 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 50c | 776$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hawks | 47c | 575$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.75 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…e757backed Lakers | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks | 46c | 497.96$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.9 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawks | 50c | 331$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Hawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Lakers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Lakers | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Hawks | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Hawks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Hawks | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)this page
- Lakers vs. HawksHawks won
- Lakers vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.