TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,477,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,541,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,477,056 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,576 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94d7…bef5backed 76ers21c92,662$19,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,780.9425925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed 76ers47c83,942$39,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,790.474456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0140…9028backed Raptors55c52,999$29,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,799.454544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raptors51c51,237$26,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,071.782,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked 76ers45c50,000$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,50017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed 76ers24c47,509$11,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,446.731,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers50c44,596$22,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,167.512,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Raptors53c36,805$19,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,416.9769852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers34c33,781$11,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,451.444,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked 76ers26c31,632$8,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,168.9526038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed 76ers14c22,088$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,092.7548046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Raptors56c20,000$11,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,7308939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Raptors57c18,260$10,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,867.623351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked 76ers43c17,889$7,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,777.6672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Raptors57c17,371$9,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,507.5337557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Raptors50c17,000$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,50074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed 76ers43c15,000$6,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4507946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed 76ers20c15,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed 76ers50c14,557$7,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,278.3226544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Raptors72c13,954$10,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,857.711,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcddd…166cbacked Raptors80c12,777$10,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.246953.6%37 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed 76ers47c12,125$5,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,707.365925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed 76ers49c11,842$5,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,764.4348944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked 76ers20c11,029$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.071650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked 76ers52c10,334$5,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,372.0724554.7%134 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Raptors55c10,000$5,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,505.4612334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Raptors55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5005250%26 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Raptors50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0003177.4%24 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Raptors55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.9920253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked 76ers50c9,845$4,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,922.261533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 76ers49c8,978$4,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,392.472,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed 76ers47c8,561$4,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,023.6559646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Raptors51c7,416$3,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,633.6924053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed 76ers14c7,253$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.781,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Raptors56c7,131$3,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.683652.8%19 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed 76ers45c6,669$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed23…8b8dbacked 76ers51c6,627$3,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,38010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x684f…22d2backed Raptors49c6,618$3,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,375.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Raptors52c6,581$3,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,181.8396447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Raptors51c6,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,95076249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Raptors50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00016339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked 76ers45c6,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2043…355fbacked Raptors51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…8e79backed 76ers51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Raptors77c5,886$4,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.8116446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked 76ers44c5,800$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5524535.6%16 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked 76ers44c5,554$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.051,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers43c5,456$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.222,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Raptors50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Raptors57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,15043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Raptors48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed 76ers44c4,800$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,135.5433743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf32…aecbbacked 76ers44c4,532$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9941435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed 76ers46c4,500$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.9978445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Raptors50c4,017$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.512655.6%70 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8692…91f0backed 76ers48c3,960$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5167…ccefbacked Raptors53c3,959$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed 76ers51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00013355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed 76ers48c3,652$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7531,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Raptors55c3,622$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.911558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Raptors52c3,568$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.5866853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers48c3,496$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.266,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers45c3,437$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.249,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee2e…f422backed Raptors56c3,400$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4964259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Raptors75c3,315$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.818951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed 76ers32c3,193$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.5585344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcd…0aa5backed 76ers52c3,021$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.821741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c92…2834backed Raptors51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+122.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b87…d735backed 76ers50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed 76ers50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked 76ers44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9416…991bbacked Raptors56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Raptors56c2,999$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.5519150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Raptors51c2,994$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.9628850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Raptors66c2,889$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.821,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Raptors55c2,814$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.9922449.1%110 W · 114 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb560…60d6backed 76ers47c2,753$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.695736.8%21 W · 36 L-8.0wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked 76ers44c2,727$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20027848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b8e1backed 76ers45c2,667$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9020…2cfcbacked 76ers19c2,666$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Raptors54c2,614$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.9147856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Raptors48c2,570$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.2295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed 76ers45c2,560$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.912,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Raptors69c2,517$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.229458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef4…32a1backed Raptors50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25010041%41 W · 59 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Raptors50c2,437$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.541652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Raptors48c2,402$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.6235547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x631d…4759backed Raptors51c2,400$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1761070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaad…5287backed 76ers50c2,400$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-75.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers37c2,358$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.828,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429b…0688backed Raptors51c2,329$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.073450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Raptors53c2,300$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07214356.6%81 W · 62 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc88…db51backed Raptors53c2,200$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed 76ers44c2,106$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.4472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed 76ers47c2,105$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed 76ers49c2,100$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02913455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba4…f9e4backed Raptors53c2,100$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ebf…e50fbacked 76ers46c2,090$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.1465144.5%290 W · 361 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67d9…9beebacked 76ers53c2,075$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1003354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed 76ers3c2,044$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.488820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.