TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,923,260
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,116,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,923,260 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Lakers45c717,555$325,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392,5555952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Raptors45c360,626$161,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,549.31,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Lakers45c230,000$103,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,50087144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Raptors55c223,704$122,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,104.9472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Raptors55c175,271$96,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,398.9126253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lakers44c100,000$44,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,00051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Raptors55c100,000$55,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,999.9520253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lakers50c90,000$44,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,090.071,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Raptors54c76,821$41,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,483.3826753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Lakers44c67,614$29,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,939.896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Raptors57c52,960$30,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,057.621450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Lakers44c52,960$23,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,52817861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Lakers63c50,000$31,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,501.5422457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Raptors48c44,675$21,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,438.751,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd5…ed17backed Lakers44c39,994$17,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,396.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lakers44c39,900$17,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,388.351,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Raptors56c38,584$21,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,607.2414052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf963…0637backed Raptors45c36,535$16,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,418.564742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd595…b30bbacked Raptors49c34,922$17,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,0004748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers45c33,314$15,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,177.662,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Raptors18c30,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,25012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Lakers44c30,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,799.9823245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Raptors56c30,000$16,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,799.933551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Lakers43c29,171$12,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,627.2116942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Raptors56c28,300$15,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,847.8414549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Lakers47c27,700$13,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,685.7114853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Raptors56c25,918$14,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,445.224650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Raptors55c25,322$13,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,927.137557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Lakers44c22,727$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,727.2721944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Raptors40c22,262$8,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,940.147259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Raptors55c22,219$12,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,178.6810235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors37c21,740$8,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,065.364,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Raptors54c21,000$11,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,34016339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Raptors57c20,685$11,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,689.5648046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Raptors56c20,000$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,199.91,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked Lakers62c19,328$12,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,318.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Raptors54c18,340$9,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,903.6519351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Lakers54c16,869$9,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,706.641,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba63…893bbacked Lakers59c16,856$9,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,860.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Raptors51c15,547$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00017441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked Lakers55c15,300$8,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,907616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lakers46c15,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,10038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Raptors37c15,000$5,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,540.0910837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers46c14,736$6,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,011.732,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Lakers48c14,325$6,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,482.238649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Raptors55c13,385$7,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,361.7140350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Raptors48c13,110$6,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,314.9976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed Raptors56c12,704$7,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,114.392759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors54c12,071$6,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,543.759,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6f…2e89backed Raptors47c12,000$5,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6402429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors54c12,000$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4804,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Raptors45c11,423$5,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,181.4144654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Raptors49c11,000$5,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,416.981,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Lakers46c10,974$5,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,926.124831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865a…f1ecbacked Raptors56c10,624$5,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9503354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Lakers44c10,390$4,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,818.629037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea27…19c6backed Raptors52c10,223$5,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,297.784057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed Raptors42c10,044$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,250.31741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Lakers45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,50017658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Lakers58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20016848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Raptors56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.9835235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Raptors47c9,744$4,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,545.989336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Lakers46c9,643$4,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,228.2836741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Raptors51c9,178$4,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,712.9374748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Raptors55c9,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,95013442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Raptors56c9,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0406245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…b9b1backed Raptors56c8,929$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lakers46c8,912$4,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,810.448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Raptors55c8,883$4,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,886.635651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6603…959ebacked Lakers56c8,228$4,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,626.532055%11 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Raptors55c7,561$4,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,158.4916844%74 W · 94 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers45c7,522$3,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,136.881,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb322…2179backed Lakers46c7,246$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,912.654040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Lakers44c6,840$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,830.43151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Raptors52c6,687$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers57c6,539$3,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,814.945,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a8…5d74backed Raptors55c6,500$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,575450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors39c6,466$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.423,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors51c6,361$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,214.143,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lakers46c6,233$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,379.581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Raptors55c6,173$3,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,395.1589050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Raptors2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lakers54c5,975$3,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,742.572,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Raptors50c5,549$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.8591050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Lakers66c5,525$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.676943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadea…0945backed Lakers47c5,511$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,921.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe48…d944backed Raptors53c5,505$2,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,917.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Lakers48c5,502$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.0561851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e46…35efbacked Raptors56c5,493$3,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,076.193850%19 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Lakers56c5,405$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.2520352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2983…7a63backed Lakers46c5,400$2,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,916757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors55c5,395$2,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,967.656,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x901f…74e9backed Raptors56c5,354$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.4910046%46 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Raptors56c5,066$2,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,83719136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Lakers44c5,053$2,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.911,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Raptors49c5,004$2,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,456.7523237.1%86 W · 146 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Raptors55c5,000$2,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,725.015251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc02f…dfa2backed Lakers46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+58.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Raptors55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7504037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed50…984dbacked Lakers48c4,940$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,568.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.