NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x381cdceac539f7e05d1c03d165dc434193733dba4c421aa7db666ceeecb81093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 2,267$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 47c | 2,072$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.36 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd9…fe8dbacked Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…92f4backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 49c | 1,013$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.27 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 513$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 495.65$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.12 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 378.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.46 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 49c | 364.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.08 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Under | 53c | 340$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…3551backed Over | 80c | 321.84$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…599fbacked Under | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -18.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cef…ce24backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2e…ff2cbacked Under | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Over | 49c | 89.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…5abfbacked Over | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…db8fbacked Over | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 46c | 30.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Under | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5this page
- Lakers vs. RaptorsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.