NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda7bf739c506fca4dd8bd82c096ddc0386134d3350238caf0bc5cd40d3676790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…93a3backed Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…a5d8backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…5ca2backed Under | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…512fbacked Over | 45c | 1,900$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,613$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Under | 54c | 1,220$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.57 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 1,219$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 43c | 329.68$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.92 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 6c | 199$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…2bc2backed Over | 46c | 193.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…8186backed Over | 46c | 186.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…25e9backed Over | 46c | 180.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…b81dbacked Over | 46c | 176.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…e724backed Over | 46c | 171.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…5a57backed Over | 46c | 169.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 50c | 159$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 605 | 49.8%301 W · 304 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…e948backed Over | 46c | 141.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 57c | 122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…3551backed Over | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…6ad8backed Under | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 43c | 97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 52c | 83.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 44c | 63.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed Over | 45c | 60.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 54c | 55.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 55.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…fbc2backed Under | 56c | 35.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…276abacked Over | 44c | 35.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…089fbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 45c | 27.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5this page
- Lakers vs. RaptorsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.