NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8653f9990b8c905f9d7e81e71b8ab125c4937ce4f45a681a7f3c427d44dd63c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 54c | 13,253$7,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,098.85 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 5,967$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…18eebacked Under | 48c | 5,462$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 1,501$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.45 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 1,073$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.57 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 45c | 514.63$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.58 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…fd78backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 531 | 41.8%222 W · 309 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c9…2e09backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0af3backed Over | 55c | 55.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Over | 53c | 54.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dd…9889backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…2b99backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5this page
- Lakers vs. RaptorsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.