NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33053cb217bbaa11f029c1d53ad965aff374990b5ba8d1d5f6d243a76b6c212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Raptors, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32c3…f531backed Raptors | 52c | 11,200$5,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,824 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa6…6b31backed Lakers | 48c | 11,200$5,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,824 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…5befbacked Lakers | 48c | 5,400$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,808 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…81cebacked Raptors | 52c | 5,400$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,808 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 47c | 4,208$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 53c | 3,607$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.74 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 53c | 565.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Raptors | 55c | 509.09$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Raptors | 55c | 472.73$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Lakers | 47c | 447.74$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.3 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Raptors | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Lakers | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 47c | 226.05$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…fa34backed Lakers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 48c | 212.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Lakers | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Raptors | 53c | 188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lakers | 45c | 160.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Lakers | 45c | 160.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Lakers | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Raptors | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Raptors | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Raptors | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Raptors | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Raptors | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Raptors | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Lakers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Lakers | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Raptors | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…223dbacked Lakers | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lakers | 53c | 47.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers | 47c | 42.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Lakers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Lakers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Lakers | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Raptors | 56c | 30.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…fcedbacked Raptors | 53c | 28.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lakers | 45c | 23.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e4…99eebacked Raptors | 54c | 21.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)this page
- Lakers vs. RaptorsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.