Serie A · resolved market
Will Napoli vs. Cagliari end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b2174eebdf67a2a6dec2be0b58292ebe85942a802b600e1ef6afc2f76d3722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 5c | 862$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 53c | 547.66$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.86 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 40c | 543.38$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.39 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 438.03$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.15 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 52c | 429.32$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 78c | 264.55$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…1d65backed Yes | 47c | 257.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…cd34backed Yes | 73c | 220.11$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 34c | 217.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 55c | 200.04$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 57c | 178.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…95c4backed Yes | 38c | 159.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 52c | 135.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked No | 76c | 132.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 33c | 106.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 71c | 77.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 62c | 32.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 67c | 30.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…f053backed Yes | 72c | 19.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napoli vs. Cagliari end in a draw?this page
- Will Cagliari win on 2025-08-30?No won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-08-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.