Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd88528ccede5ddba15c8c92c2270101525087111b15425d8b2a41efc811e3086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe667…898fbacked Over | 0c | 14,502$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 0c | 13,837$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 8,853$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,195.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 29c | 5,374$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,809.68 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 4,451$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,497.59 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 58c | 4,090$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 46c | 3,724$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.65 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…ae31backed Over | 74c | 1,545$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,360$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.55 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 19c | 1,247$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.28 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…6a91backed Over | 4c | 1,066$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 65c | 999.49$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.63 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 21c | 958.14$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Under | 54c | 930.92$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 79c | 925.05$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.79 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 58c | 692.72$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.45 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 649.89$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.77 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…f593backed Under | 49c | 608.29$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 51c | 605.11$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.23 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 70c | 500.05$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 51c | 488.19$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 70c | 484.51$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 389.09$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.73 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 40c | 323.34$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.34 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…b2f8backed Over | 74c | 281.11$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 65c | 264.52$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 46c | 250.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.22 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 56c | 208.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 19c | 204.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.88 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Under | 45c | 195.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 56c | 179.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 18c | 176.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.78 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 18c | 152$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 58c | 130.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 47c | 117.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 47c | 109.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 52c | 106.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 68c | 102.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 67c | 101.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Under | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…07bbbacked Over | 75c | 99.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 53c | 96.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…1fdebacked Under | 43c | 93.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Over | 77c | 89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Over | 61c | 84.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…768cbacked Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 33c | 62.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 24c | 62.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under | 49c | 60.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed Under | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed Over | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…3b90backed Over | 59c | 59.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 43c | 58.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 34c | 53.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…3f14backed Over | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 58c | 49.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 30c | 47.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 66c | 42.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 73c | 41.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 49c | 38.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 27c | 37.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…7e14backed Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…c577backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 38c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 66c | 29.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 77c | 25.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Over | 72c | 20.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Over | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Under | 75c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 75c | 14.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.