Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61128fd1ca7526229586367969973e3b5edfd43ae39665fe407eea6d1c96e39c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 18c | 2,250$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.11 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 21c | 1,611$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.23 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Over | 22c | 594.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Over | 22c | 522.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 79c | 376.43$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 78c | 289.06$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 22c | 279.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 181.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 18c | 174.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Over | 12c | 167.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Over | 20c | 114$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 22c | 99.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 21c | 96.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 80c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Over | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 79c | 73.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 20c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 21c | 53.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Under | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 79c | 32.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Under | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Under | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Under | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Under | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Under | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Under | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Under | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.