TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc311…44fcbacked Over37c12,484$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,650862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c11,311$7,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,917.863,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under66c8,277$5,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.122,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe667…898fbacked Over1c7,630$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Over1c2,525$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over37c2,112$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.447062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under63c1,637$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.61,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6603…959ebacked Over39c1,559$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed07…886abacked Under63c1,393$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.241883.3%15 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+42.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under75c1,127$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.691,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over37c1,081$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40022747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Under63c939$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.92369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+47.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under60c893.02$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.2138748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under65c846.15$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.1538055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Over21c585.68$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.295425.9%14 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over37c553.24$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.73339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under63c500.04$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.5535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over37c486.87$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0666…d31abacked Over34c441.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under65c402.9$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0733340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14824258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over37c360$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.214355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Under61c327.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.446159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Over37c303$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.111435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over37c299.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11115453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40da…0b85backed Over35c284.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over33c268.48$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.61631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over37c250$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.511860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over37c241.56$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3844749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Under63c219.03$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.118253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over38c211.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.095052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Over29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Over37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7414726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Under69c186.83$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.892650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under64c180$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.219254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Over39c171$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.941546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over37c170$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.911458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over37c170$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.911563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over38c155.84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2237344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b02…ae87backed Under68c147.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.94862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick73cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over38c145.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4510642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Over37c132.78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.135450%27 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over36c132$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5810361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cf…0ea7backed Over37c121.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over37c120$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.46460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over37c120$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.413254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b1…f219backed Over25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under63c117.28$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3917456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8d…55c5backed Under74c115.12$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.271758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x832c…c46ebacked Over35c114.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401711.8%2 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-69.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3d78…a4ccbacked Over35c112.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Over39c109$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.511442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Over10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over18c94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3718545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Over12c91.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.891010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb0…d1bbbacked Over17c85.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5a…0f0cbacked Over25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302556%14 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under64c72.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cf…60fdbacked Over31c64.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Under63c63.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5735…4c95backed Over40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.25558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.26657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.25558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f95…1f16backed Over34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over24c58.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1427142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd233…50e5backed Over37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8260…3a6abacked Over37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be6…3117backed Over37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6593…5a54backed Over37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa41…f05dbacked Over39c53.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ae…bf68backed Over38c53.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd023…8e17backed Over38c52.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29fe…74e1backed Over40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb4…5c6bbacked Over40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Over40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce0a…9949backed Over40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over37c47.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5411955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over35c47.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57825.6%20 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over28c47.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9638151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Over39c42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.381050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Under62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.327452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab2e…8b4bbacked Under61c39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ea…9406backed Over40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e2…89a5backed Over31c35.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.221041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb58…a62ebacked Under65c34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6456…6c6cbacked Under75c33.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9926…71c3backed Over40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Under75c29.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.478852.3%46 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x320f…1420backed Over37c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.732552%13 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24b8…6a66backed Over40c28.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45768.4%39 W · 18 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Over36c28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0814942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b40…93f4backed Under61c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.