TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb089…a271

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
510
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Ligue 1, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Ligue 1 at 60 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 35.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT9943.4%43 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tromsø IL vs. Vålerenga Fotball: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$8.92
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Orgryte IS vs. BK Hacken: BK Hacken O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$20.42
Vitória SC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+300%+$37.25
FC Twente '65 vs. NEC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.33
FC Twente '65 vs. NEC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.06
NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.46
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+138.6%+$47.44
FC Porto vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.48
SC Braga vs. FC Famalicão: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$14.69
Sporting CP vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
IK Start vs. Molde FK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Vejle BK vs. FC København: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+87.3%+$26.72
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.33
Samsunspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$28.97
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Alanyaspor: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.21
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.51
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$19.46
Kocaelispor vs. Göztepe SK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$36.15
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$56.29
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-04-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.24
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Eyüpspor: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$15.32
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$16.13
FC Utrecht vs. AZ: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.04
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kayserispor: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.97
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT5558.2%32 W · 23 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Asian League — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.22
Incheon United FC vs. FC Anyang: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.36
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.79
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$12.94
NEOM SC vs. Al Hazem SC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$17.61
Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+139.4%+$20.91
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+122.2%+$24.38
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+81.8%+$14.47
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$37.91
Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+84.3%+$25.28
Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+81.8%+$15.01
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$12.24
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-02-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+75.4%+$14.89
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+210%+$147.03
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$15.25
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+70.7%+$35.34
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-02-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+72.4%+$10.86
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT5450%27 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.47
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.16
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.36
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.28
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$27.91
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.61
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$22.72
Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.38
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$15.92
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$13.43
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.88
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+89.1%+$21.88
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+112.8%+$11.93
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16.54
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+122.2%+$36.65
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$70.04
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+222.6%+$25.49
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+124.8%+$33.45
SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+150%+$34.72
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$53.98
Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$49.99
Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.99
Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.2
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+170.3%+$18.66
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT5343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.37
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$13.15
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.06
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-04-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
CD Leganés vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.54
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.22
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$46.66
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Real Racing Club vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$92.86
Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$17.49
Albacete Balompié vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+127.3%+$12.75
Deportivo Alavés vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+108.3%+$18.2
Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Málaga CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$36.9
Málaga CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20.4
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$48.03
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+104.1%+$14.89
UD Las Palmas vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+127.3%+$36.41
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10.62
Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+213%+$106.48
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+70.9%+$22.78
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$74.55
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+117.4%+$29.35
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT5339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+130.5%+$93.2
Ipswich Town FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$15.77
Ipswich Town FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+100%+$16
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.99
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-02-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-02-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Swansea City AFC vs. Preston North End FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Swansea City AFC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$19.99
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$16.36
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+150%+$27
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$28.97
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+150%+$75
Everton FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+69.5%+$10.42
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$37.2
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+90.5%+$19.64
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+78.6%+$40.94
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$82.43
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT3938.5%15 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$11.32
Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$12.78
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$12.36
Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$17.09
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+69.5%+$8
Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+164.1%+$82.02
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$65.77
Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.91
Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+107.7%+$43.07
Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$48.29
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Perth Glory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Perth Glory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.25
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.7
Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+72.4%+$17.91
Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+108.3%+$16.4
Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+66.7%+$9.99
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT2860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+46.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$51.71
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+83%+$19.37
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.77
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.35
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$11.02
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.81
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.73
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.16
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-02-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+138.1%+$22.1
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-02-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$17.49
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$15
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+88.7%+$33.42
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+88.7%+$17.74
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+426.3%+$43.44
Toulouse FC vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+132.8%+$55.04
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$29.59
Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+100%+$15
Lille OSC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+127.3%+$21.57
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$34.08
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$56.02
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+112.8%+$78.92
AS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+112.8%+$28.62
Will Angers SCO win on 2025-12-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+122.2%+$18.33
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Atert Bissen vs. KÍ: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.64
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$119.49
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+122.2%+$122.22
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+212.5%+$21.25
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$16.97
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+150%+$15
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+138.1%+$14.09
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+138.1%+$34.9
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+104.1%+$61.11
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+244.8%+$41.55
AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+132.6%+$14.42
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$66.31
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+212.5%+$21.25
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$15.04
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Galatasaray SK vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$24.99
Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+222.6%+$24.48
Olympiakós SFP vs. PSV: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 24 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Serie A — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.34
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$20
AS Roma vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+104.1%+$52.04
Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+122.2%+$61.03
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-02-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$25
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+103.5%+$15.52
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+163.2%+$32.62
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)backed Atalanta BC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$22.2
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+88.7%+$17.73
SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Juventus FC vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$21.25
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$17.2
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$12.29
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+117.4%+$16.55
SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.03
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15.23
Will US Lecce win on 2025-12-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+203%+$23.69
Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)backed US Lecce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$12.37
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-12-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$21.42
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$15
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$26.16
All 24 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST2259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$28.64
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12
76ers vs. Magic: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10.83
Spread: Raptors (-6.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$10.43
Spread: 76ers (-3.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Hawks vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+66.7%+$10
Spread: Magic (-5.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+88.7%+$13.3
Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+96.1%+$9.68
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Rockets (-16.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+78.6%+$11.79
Warriors vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10.39
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+81.8%+$16.36
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+88.7%+$15.55
Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+75.4%+$18.86
Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+78.6%+$11.79
Spread: Pistons (-12.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Nets vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+104.1%+$31.12
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+96.1%+$18.65
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+75.4%+$7.78
Thunder vs. Trail Blazersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$15.01
All 22 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panathinaikós AO vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.76
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.99
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$20.69
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+138.1%+$27.62
Celtic FC vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+150%+$29.15
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+100%+$16
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$15.25
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+92.4%+$34.27
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+44.9%+$9.36
VfB Stuttgart vs. BSC Young Boys: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+75.4%+$9.03
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+78.6%+$17.77
Will SK Sigma Olomouc win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+75.4%+$11.36
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)backed Real Betis Balompié · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$29.99
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$25.37
Will Celtic FC win on 2025-11-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
PAOK vs. BSC Young Boys: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+138.1%+$22.15
FC Midtjylland vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+58.7%+$6
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
England vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.37
Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.21
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+64.6%+$12.92
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.32
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.76
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$30.26
Czechia vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.29
Will Madagascar win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.09
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+118.3%+$35.16
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+100%+$22.04
Mali vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$21.81
Algeria vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30.62
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+51.5%+$5.87
Will Georgia win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Mali win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 17 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT120%0 W · 12 L-5.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clube do Remo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.36
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.09
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.53
CA River Plate vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.97
Coritiba FBC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.21
CA Tigre vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.32
CA Tigre vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.66
CA Banfield vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10.55
Club Puebla vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$29.99
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$13
CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 12 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+181.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Basketball vs. Valenciabacked Valencia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10.01
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.