NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x956b274e1b82a6b0a92dc3a9967d3a93360a3eb84e597b2f3a635f842940b88b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,863$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 41c | 448.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.09 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 394.9$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Under | 59c | 272.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 43c | 116.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5813backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4ca1backed Under | 56c | 91.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f72…9b5ebacked Under | 56c | 73.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 59c | 47.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…8e45backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…1466backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 73c | 36.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…13d8backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked Under | 55c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…a7a4backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. NetsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)Nets won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.