NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fd34955aa21119a6ec8ff94807fb446072738a38f1bbe745aa9a5d5c6775dda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Raptors, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Nets | 51c | 38,190$19,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,522.51 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nets | 54c | 35,549$19,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,402.55 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…5ecdbacked Raptors | 46c | 21,742$10,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,001.17 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Raptors | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Raptors | 46c | 14,252$6,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,604.01 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Raptors | 48c | 9,999$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.52 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Raptors | 47c | 9,260$4,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,333.54 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Raptors | 46c | 9,000$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,140 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Nets | 53c | 5,656$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.26 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nets | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Nets | 54c | 4,500$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nets | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.86 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Nets | 52c | 3,051$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.48 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 49c | 2,370$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Raptors | 46c | 2,057$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.22 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nets | 52c | 1,685$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.58 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Raptors | 46c | 1,549$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Raptors | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 48c | 1,254$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.92 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 51c | 1,221$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…12a0backed Raptors | 50c | 1,140$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…3cf7backed Nets | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Raptors | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…0bb4backed Raptors | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…0674backed Nets | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Nets | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raptors | 47c | 972.21$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.24 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Raptors | 48c | 927.8$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Raptors | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 48c | 520$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.92 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raptors | 52c | 458$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.16 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f72…9b5ebacked Raptors | 48c | 439.58$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Raptors | 47c | 426$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.22 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Raptors | 47c | 425.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.22 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Raptors | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Nets | 54c | 387.4$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Raptors | 47c | 229$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Nets | 51c | 226.16$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Raptors | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Raptors | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…0425backed Raptors | 48c | 208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Raptors | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…a633backed Nets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669c…6c54backed Raptors | 48c | 189.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Nets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51c2…2b13backed Nets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdc…1669backed Nets | 53c | 167.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Raptors | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets | 52c | 133.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…2348backed Raptors | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64b7…1dd8backed Raptors | 48c | 106.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…cea0backed Raptors | 49c | 104.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Raptors | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Raptors | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Raptors | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…895dbacked Nets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Raptors | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3f…ba6cbacked Raptors | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Raptors | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Raptors | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Nets | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…d718backed Raptors | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nets | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Raptors | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Raptors | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…9813backed Nets | 53c | 46.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Raptors | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Raptors | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Raptors | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Nets | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Nets | 53c | 39.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x846e…223bbacked Raptors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors | 44c | 30.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Raptors | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…1f7abacked Raptors | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Raptors | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9909…b90cbacked Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 208 | 39.4%82 W · 126 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Nets | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. NetsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.