NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3fe5b83a7e67f870126a961afdd4bdddcd7883e9ab2bc917cf9b8a581c13012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Under | 49c | 1,888$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.76 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Under | 50c | 1,499$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.61 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 50c | 1,459$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.61 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Over | 50c | 713$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 410.76$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.49 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 242.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…895dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…6cccbacked Over | 48c | 124.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 124.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 49c | 101.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 46c | 98.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1c…2c69backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…ed19backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. NetsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)Nets won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.