NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d6712f79d0cc76477c1be80baaa0d2f20a0f9d85dda170bcdb9e47fde1379c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 4,040$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Under | 57c | 2,882$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.46 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 52c | 2,031$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.1 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Under | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 51c | 980.13$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…dc00backed Over | 51c | 899$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…a81ebacked Under | 49c | 899$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 860.04$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.07 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97e…0b97backed Under | 49c | 750$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…ad91backed Over | 51c | 750$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 43c | 432.55$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.14 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 404.26$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 43c | 367.55$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.05 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 311.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 52c | 307.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.69 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Under | 55c | 129.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 52c | 127$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 47c | 104.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…eff9backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…edeabacked Over | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…e7f9backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…044dbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 88 | 75%66 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. NetsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)Nets won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.