NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb04629b26e80e3f27c96d8a22399362bb13654209f5e1e54c24f9e495a6f2cc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Nets | 49c | 10,362$5,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,077.45 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Raptors | 53c | 6,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 51c | 5,572$2,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Raptors | 52c | 5,000$2,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.61 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nets | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.96 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nets | 47c | 3,949$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856.43 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Nets | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Raptors | 51c | 2,480$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.08 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Nets | 47c | 2,081$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.03 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Raptors | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Raptors | 51c | 1,706$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.94 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Nets | 47c | 1,607$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.88 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors | 48c | 1,546$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.84 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raptors | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.16 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…665bbacked Nets | 48c | 1,198$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f9…0c6abacked Raptors | 52c | 1,198$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Raptors | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Nets | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Raptors | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…7231backed Raptors | 52c | 923.08$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.08 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Nets | 49c | 676.78$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.62 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Raptors | 52c | 593.85$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.89 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raptors | 50c | 524.09$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.67 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Raptors | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Raptors | 54c | 390.88$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.88 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets | 47c | 379.9$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.43 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets | 45c | 319.11$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Nets | 48c | 287.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Raptors | 54c | 278.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.51 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nets | 48c | 251.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Raptors | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Raptors | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…d1c7backed Raptors | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Raptors | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed Raptors | 51c | 196.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Raptors | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Raptors | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Raptors | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…8ac9backed Raptors | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Raptors | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Nets | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Raptors | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Raptors | 53c | 96.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Raptors | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Raptors | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Raptors | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Raptors | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…f5d8backed Raptors | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Raptors | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Raptors | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 51c | 59.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 49c | 59.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nets | 48c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nets | 41c | 50.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…d718backed Raptors | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Raptors | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Raptors | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Nets | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…6f1dbacked Raptors | 53c | 41.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Raptors | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Raptors | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Raptors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…14dcbacked Raptors | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Raptors | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…88fbbacked Raptors | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Raptors | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Raptors | 53c | 23.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Raptors | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. NetsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Nets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.